Rating: 
Summary: A Bubble product
Review: Dr Dent's book is a "one-stop shopping" mini-MBA course in 3 key areas of human studies:
(1)Economics: how birth-waves drive economic patterns & outcomes
(2)Human Consciousness: the evolution of Human Consciousness as tied to ascending living standards in The West
(3)Technology: communication & learning patterns in knowledge-intense organizationsDr Dent has made an extremely important contribution with this book to the collective group of entrepreneur-economist-thinkers (EET's) of today. Anyone who reads these kinds of books is an EET who is either already in (or will soon be in) a position of leadership/ownership over The West's business infrastructure. It's cutting-edge, very sharp minds like Dent's that light the way for all the rest of us who are willing to pay a price to do the work. And, the problems of dot-bombs & terrorism aside, I must at this time pointedly counter the negativity of the many previous reviewers and readers who have recently "lost their shirts" in the stock market & who are predictably scoffing at Dent's positivism like an armchair quarterback. Here goes... It's a poor business decision for a business to "outsource" its core business activities; context yes, but core -- NO. Dent points out that in today's Knowledge Economy, each individual has now become her own small business -- regardless of whether she's W2 or 1099. All so here we have all of these professional people who have mindlessly "outsourced" their financial future to a group of mutual fund managers that they've never met (via their 401-k, and these fund managers are strictly fixed salary with NO bonus incentives based on trading volume or gains/losses for their customers). After contemplating the simple truth that their pain is actually self-inflicted, I would ask that they not blame Dent for their obvious lack of financial intelligence. They made their bed & so now it's time to go lay down in it. Read Robert Kiyosaki's "Rich Dad's Guide to Investing" to prevent a repeat of history. In closing, Dent took a risk by offering "specifics" when it comes to predicting the stock & real-estate markets. To do so is to "live & die by the sword". But atleast Dent is man enough to admit mistakes. So don't throw out the whole book because of any small disagreements with specific predictions. His overall presentation has value & is a SIGNIFICANT contribution to modern business literature.
Rating:
Summary: Stay Away! All of Dent's Stuff Will Bankrupt You!
Review: Even before the wild melt down that started the year this wildly optimistic book came out, it was quite possible to read Dent's model as simplistic. He has taken one very valid insight - that demographic booms, particularly the baby boom, can drive economic growth, and focused on it to the exclusion of all else. He feels the demographics cause all other factors(inflation, entrepreneurship, interest rates, etc.) and believes that a predictable pattern is clear. Well, Harry, what's your portfolio worth now compared to 1/1/00? So much for predictability. Remember Warren Buffet, who said that economic forecaster's main role in business was to make fortune tellers look good.
Rating:
Summary: The Knaves and their New Economy
Review: Harry Dent couples an investment advisory book with a piecemeal economic analysis of the dynamics of the so called `New Economy' in the 21st century. The author Harry Dent may drool blissfully over his portfolio (which at the time 1998 was probably doing quite well) and see a world of compounding returns and infinite growth, but we live in a real world of scarce resources and measured productivity gains which usually grow marginally each year. One thing that I find anecdotal was the chapter on human development entitled the 'The Right Brain Revolution,' which appealed to the kooky materialism of Abraham Maslow. This was just a rehashing of tired humanistic theories over man's wants and needs.
First to give a background to this book: it was written in 1998-which in Greenspan rhetoric may be deemed a time of "irrational exuberance"-so not suprisingly the author was blissfully optimistically over a booming economy. In reality there was a long-term inflationary boom coupled with a strong market for IPO's and tech stocks. Of course, the speculative bubble burst. Contrary to the harbingers of infinite economic growth, there are no new dynamics to the so called "New Economy." If companies hemorrhage money on spending-showing no prospects for profit in their foreseeable future-than they'll probably be restructuring, going out of business, or solve their insolvency problem by merging with a larger firm. Generally, the present recession has made those who believe that there are some new rules to the game come to retreat from their Alice and Wonderland economics. Granted, we're not going to be in this recession forever contrary to the prophets of eternal economic gloom. However, there are NO new rules for a "New Economy" where profit margins can be razor thin, earnings simply non-existent and profit/equity ratios are absurdly proportioned. So, now we can come back to the real world of 2003, where high government spending and half-trillion dollar deficits crowd out the supply of credit and capital.
Dent is optimistic over the labor market giving way to `entrepreneurs,' freelancers and temps. However, it is by no means a positive sign when corporations are taking the axe to their personnel that we're in for more prosperity. In addition, some of Dent's positive economic indicators and his analysis are erroneous. For example, he sees large population growth as some positive sign that with more people, they'll be more consumption and consumer spending. But consider that in recent years, GDP growth aside, actual productivity gains have been miniscule and sometimes actually losses over the previous year. Moreover, the population growth (chiefly fueled by immigration) far exceeds productivity growth. So how is this deemed a positive sign if they're less goods and services available on per capita basis? These factors which shade the real `New Economy,' may suggest that we will be in the economic doldrums for a little while longer. Dent ignores substantive economic indicators, which even in 1998 could have foretold the present recession. If anything, it is quite tenable that the first decade of the 21st century may resemble the stagflation of the 1970s-where inflation and unemployment are high-though not with such severity.
All things considered, the blissful optimism and absurd economic logic so popular which fueled the speculative boom circa 1998 was but a foreshadowing of the present dreary state of economic affairs. The prosperity gurus will never be able to transcend common-sense economic logic with their gospel of eternal economic optimism. Then again, their perspectives are skewed in times of boom when all they see are compounding equity returns. It just seems when some people have a run of luck in the market, they have a tendency to have their judgment clouded in seeking out more 'easy money.' Some like Dent even hope to jerry-rigg the market with a psychology of perpetual prosperity. Anyway, Dent's bullish predictions have already been disproven. (I give it a pithy 0.5/5.0 star rating ...
Rating:
Summary: This time around Dent's predictions are completely wrong.
Review: Harry Dent poses as an economist but he is not. He also poses as a demographer but he is not either. As a consequence, he develops sweeping broadbased theories without solid scientific foundation. His main theme is that the large Baby Boom generation is going through its peak spending years during this decade, and as a result it will sustain an economic and stock market boom until 2009. He concludes that it is almost certain that the stock market will earn 10% and above returns throughout this decade. However, when you look at the record so far, Harry Dent's prediction in 1999 for the first decade of 2000's is way off. The ink was barely dry on his book when the stock market actually peaked (first quarter of 2000) and then tanked. The stock market then suffered a three year bear market. Current outlook for the stock market is for increased volatility, but reduced growth in the single digit range (not the double digit range, Dent predicted). Dent missed a lot of things. Some of them he could not have predicted such as heightened geopolitical risk, terrorism. Some other factors, he should have predicted. These included the overvaluation of stocks as a result of the Internet Bubble, the onset of World deflation associated with the flooding of cheap exports from China, the eventual slow down of the U.S. economy among others. Dent also pauses as a futurist. In this role, he just repeats what Alvin Toffler stated in Future Shock almost 30 years ago. Technology will reform the workplace, will boost economic productivity, etc... Nothing new or informative here. The only somewhat valuable part of this book includes several recommendations for successful investing, including:
1) Save at least 10% of your salary;
2) Use buy and hold strategies, don't try to time the market;
3) Use mutual funds to most efficiently diversify your holdings;
4) Use asset allocation. The greatest returns result from the correct asset allocation. Asset allocation should match your personal risk tolerance; and
5) Invest systematically not emotionally. However, the author did not support these good investment strategies with adequate useful details. For instance, using a 401K is the best and easiest way to implement all of his five strategies mentioned above. Also, within his mutual fund recommendation, he did not mention the advantages of index funds (greater diversification, lower cost). Thus, he omitted much information for this section of the book to be as informative as it could have.
Rating: 
Summary: Great explaination of what's happening with the economy
Review: Harry Dent's update on The Great Boom Ahead. As before, he predicts the boom will last to 2008, but he now forecasts a Dow as high as 35,000. Dent advises selling real estate and stocks in 2006 and putting the money into US Treasury bonds. Great advice if his predictions of deflation and a 15 year recession starting in 2008 are correct. The last chapter of the book "Seven Principles of Successful Investing" breaks down on one important point. Principle Six - find an objective financial advisor and pay him a fee of 1% of assets to tell you how to invest. At least 85% of advisors under perform the market so most investors would do better buying an index fund and saving the 1% advisory fee. Mr. Dent should be excused for this lapse since he discloses on page 304 that he runs a thriving business conducting seminars for financial advisors and institutional investors. We can't expect him to suggest his readers avoid doing business with his clients.
Rating:
Summary: Highly Recommended!
Review: Harry S. Dent may be the one-eyed economist living in the land of the blind. His previous book, The Great Boom Ahead, predicted our current, record-shattering market (although it underestimated its strength). Now he's updated his analysis with a new focus that extends the boom prediction through the end of the current decade. His results may prove more effective than his methodology, because Dent is a futurist who subscribes to a deterministic model. He believes that population growth and technological adoption control economic growth. Upon these foundations, Dent builds a vision of continued, unprecedented growth that may make him Enemy Number One on Alan Greenspan's Irrational Exuberance Most Wanted. But to doubters, Dent can offer the nearly irrefutable: "Yeah, but I was right." If you're in business, you should know the basics of Dent's philosophy, and if you're in the markets at all, we [...] recommend that you read this book. After all, you can't argue with his track record!
Rating:
Summary: How this guy ever got published is a lesson in itself...
Review: How this guy ever got published is a lesson in itself!
I read this book back in 2000 before the crash and agreed with
some of his reasoning as to the mechanics and ideas which would be implemented in the New Millenium, but disagreed with his
belief that there would be such great prosperity,as history ALWAYS repeats itself.
But alas, no one wants a pessimist. Then he came out with the "Roaring 2000's Investor", which again was creative and showed brilliance, but proved to by flawed on many levels. Now he has another book slated to come out "The Greatest Bull Market in History: 2003-2008: Investment, Business and Life Strategies - For the Great Boom Ahead and the Great Bust to Follow" If his past predictions are any indication, this title itself is already filled with hindsight and error. I can tell you there will be no sustainable bull market on any of the indexes for at least the next decade. I must admit I would like to speak with this guy. With a few real life experiences under his belt he may really hit the target, but so far the best title for a book would be "The Roaring 2000's: How to prosper by making the best seller list by publishing books that make people believe you have the answers." Lession #1: Don't put dates in the titles of your books that try to predict the future"
Rating:
Summary: Share market and real estate
Review: I think the basic assumption about the impact of the baby boomers is correct, but where Harry went wrong is that he encapsulated the "message" by focusing exclusively on the sharemarket. If he had said that assets, viz average share prices and average property values, will quadruple by 2008, then he will probably be right. Unfortunately he said words to the effect that the Dow Jones will go from 10,000 to 40,000 by 2008. What he didn't properly explain was that in some years real estate will go up, and down, likewise the share market. Together, over the period 2000 - 2008, the combined value will quadruple. His thesis is correct; it was the catchphase that was wrong.
Rating:
Summary: Share market and real estate
Review: I think the basic assumption about the impact of the baby boomers is correct, but where Harry went wrong is that he encapsulated the "message" by focusing exclusively on the sharemarket. If he had said that assets, viz average share prices and average property values, will quadruple by 2008, then he will probably be right. Unfortunately he said words to the effect that the Dow Jones will go from 10,000 to 40,000 by 2008. What he didn't properly explain was that in some years real estate will go up, and down, likewise the share market. Together, over the period 2000 - 2008, the combined value will quadruple. His thesis is correct; it was the catchphase that was wrong.
Rating:
Summary: What is your opinion of the economy?
Review: It is amazing how everyone has a prediction about the economy, but few will have so many predictions come true. Start with Mr. Dent's first book "The great boom ahead", how did Mr. Dent know the deficit would be wiped out by 1998? Furthermore, I encourage the reader to really study the dow channel. Regarding the Roaring 2000's, I would encourage the reader to read (by the way this was published in 1998) page 296 "remember 2002 could see a substantial correction for adding to stock positions." Furthermore, turn to page 305 "the best years in the stock market and economy should come from late 2002 into...." The last piece of evidence you will find on page 52 "The Roaring 2000's will parallel the Roaring 20's on a two generation or 80 year lag." Do your own research, look at the chart of Intel July 1992-July 2002 and General Motors February 1912 and February 1992, you will find they overlay exactly, exactly 80 years apart. Enough said.
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