Rating:  Summary: Timely, but incomplete Review: "The End of Detroit" covers a very timely subject - the long slide and decline of the market share of the Big Three, as well as the decline of their ability to effectively compete.
Micheline Maynard covers the successes of Japanese and Korean automotive manufacturers in great detail, as well as BMW as an example of European manufacturers. A particularly worthwhile read are the areas covering the the North American manufacturing plants that the import brands have built - covering not only the obvious financial advantages but also their long term strategic benefits. She also covers the state of the big Three in detail - the focus on high-profit trucks and it's inevitable backfire, and especially the overhead costs of the very powerful (and very entrenched) labor force: uncompetitive (costs and work rules), overpaid, excessive benefits, and enormous financial overhead both when working, when laid off, and continuing on through retirement. All of these labor issues competitively impact the bottom line of the Big Three - not only in the price of the vehicle, but in their ability to drive down costs (both manufacturing and labor) to be competitive in the market.
I actually finished this book and then went back to review it again a couple of months later. Its a very timely book, and I highly recommend it. However, I can't say I agree with everything the author states, and I do feel that several of the topics deserve more detailed attention.
For example:
- Nissan has made some very serious errors, almost going out of business. Now the recovery is well underway, and the product lineup is very aggressive and bold (too much so in some cases?). However, there are some serious quality issues in some of the cars (the many issues of 350Z owners comes to mind).
- Mitsubishi is a real sad sack - with one or two exceptions (a brilliant exception in the case of the Evo) the lineup is dull and pointless, offering nothing to distinguish itself. With the exception of the Evo, you can literally ask yourself "would anybody notice of they disappeared"?. The sorry state of their dealers (terrible service reputation) isn't covered at all. And, the recent issues with bad car loans is barely covered at all (although to be fair much of that information fully came to light after the book was published).
- Mazda has had an interesting history in the last 10-15 years, again almost driving themselves out of business. Now they're doing well - innovative products and growing sales. Although major issues remain: lack of differentiation between the Tribute and the Escape, poor service reputation of some dealers, and the lack of dealers in certain prime market areas. What's particularly interesting, though, is the fact that Mazda's recovery was led by Ford executives over the last several years - and not by "old-style" managers from traditional Detroit, but by internationally experienced executives from other worldwide locations. This alone ought to be the subject of an entire book, and it didn't even rate a chapter here.
- Ford's success with it's Premier Automotive Group (made up entirely of formerly fiercely-independent European brands) is a very interesting topic that was all but ignored. While not particularly profitable at first (each had it's own problems, such as Jaguar with it's aged manufacturing plants and stubborn labor force), it's blossomed in the past two years and is now a very clear winner for Ford. Contrast that with GM's own experience with Saab (amounting to little more of a strategy than simple rebadging of corporate platforms - even a technologically backwards American SUV!). Neither were covered in any significant detail in this book.
- The Korean manufacturers are growing quickly. However, they were (at least) initially propped up by Korean government subsidiaries - a fact she missed entirely and a prime example of unfair competition. She does cover some of their initial (and very serious) quality issues. She barely covers how they are in the process of taking over the extreme low end of the market - edging the Japanese into higher (and lower volume) markets areas - areas which of course are at great risk in times of economic troubles. And there is very little discussion of the Chinese, who could very well end up dominating the lower end of the market and taking it entirely away from the Japanese as well as the Koreans - leaving both countries with an aging and very expensive workforce (sound familiar?).
- She believes that one of the Big Three will cease to exist by the end of the decade. I completely disagree with this for several reasons:
- the Big Three are improving their ability to compete, although very very slowly (a: have to learn how; b: the UAW is still in the way).
- this book - whether you agree with it all or not - helps raise these issues in the public eye - and the entire issue of American labor is slowly (but not quickly enough) becoming a campaign issue. This issue is also directly related to outsourcing issues in the software industry, as well as to the Government's ridiculous (and ultimately dangerous) meddling in Microsoft's ability to innovate. The dominance of the Unites States in nearly every facet of the software industry is also at risk. We've also seen some serious issues in the ability of Boeing to compete in the worldwide aerospace industry recently. Better awareness and discussion of the entire range of American competitiveness could help better position us in the world economy.
- the industry is shifting - slowly but surely - into alternative powerplants. Each of the Big Three has a somewhat different strategy here (Ford is probably the best positioned), although again the ability to execute is the major issue (it will be interesting to see if the benefits of the upcoming 2005 Hybrid Escape are fully realized - assuming of course the quality and reliability of it's all-new powerplant are fully delivered as well). This area by itself will take until well after the end of the current decade to fully play out. Toyota is certainly best positioned worldwide.
Automotive enthusiasts will find many of these topics to be familiar ones. I follow the industry closely and certainly are very familiar with them all. However, the book is still a very worthwhile and interesting read because this is a topic which hasn't been focused on by the general public, it's an interesting read for followers of the software industry because it's a preview of what could happen to it one day, and it's a timely read given the upcoming 2004 Presidential election. Certainly this is the type of topic that should be focused on, rather than the continual and bombastic grasping for ways to hurt our President over the Iraq topic.
The book is indeed more than a bit meandering, and you may not agree with with every point the author makes. However, this can be a very polarizing topic - the more you explore it the more you find that it's a lot more complex than simple 1-or-0 answers. It's not solely the fault of the unions. It's not solely the fault of the executives. Etc. Etc. Furthermore, because the book was published several months ago, it is not able to address the "Year of the Car" theme in this year's North American International Auto Show. While I certainly don't believe that a shift back to cars and away from trucks is actually under way in any measurable way, shape, or form, I would certainly like to see her reaction to this years theme. Better yet, I'd like to find a serious discussion forum where I could discuss all of these issues in greater detail.
Rating:  Summary: Hard hitting and poignant - another win for Mikki Maynard!! Review: "The End" is another thoughtful, insightful and poignant book in typical Mikki Maynard fashion as were "The Manufacturing Vanguard" and "Collision Course: the Battle for General Motors."Mikki's insight and relentless research into the auto and auto parts industries is unparalleled. "The End" should teach U.S. executives a lesson of global market tactics and customer driven strategic choices in the battle for the consumer. We have a lot to learn. Can we? Will we? Or are we too arrogant to change?
Rating:  Summary: Highly Recommended! Review: America's fascination with the auto helped build and change the entire country. But as author Micheline Maynard writes, Detroit has lost its grip on American drivers by relying on overgrown distribution systems, styling myopia, reduced quality, brand mismanagement and family ownership. These factors, to varying degrees, combined to weaken the Big Three (Ford, General Motors and Chrysler). As an automotive journalist, Maynard apparently has all the facts, interviews and trade show vignettes to tell the story of the Big Three being replaced by non-U.S. manufacturers who simply do the job better. She also includes interviews with car shoppers and others who are not germane to her tale. Still, this is a powerful chronicle on the threatened, imminent demise of more American icons. We find this very valuable reading for marketing and human resource professionals, corporate change management executives and anyone interested in buying a car.
Rating:  Summary: Not As Bad As All That Review: As most Americans are well aware, for the past 25+ years the American car manufacturers (GM, Ford, and Chrysler or the Big 3) have been chipped away at by a ceaseless flood of import vehicles, mostly from Japan, Germany, and South Korea. At first the Big 3 ignored the competitors as they operated in what Detroit considered fringe markets (e.g. low-cost, high fuel mileage compacts and high end luxury models). The Big 3 maintained a firm hold on the cars they considered most important, the gas guzzling, V-8 powered, family car. Since about the early 90s the Big 3 were holding on to their market share by the ends of their finger tips and now Detroit accounts for only about 60 percent of all passenger car sales. Even this figure is deceptive though because the Big 3 account for a disproportionately large chunk of the rental car market. Without these additional sales the American manufacturers might be under 50 percent. Micheline Maynard in her book "The End of Detroit: How the Big Three Lost Their Grip on the American Car Market" attempts to explain why this happened. She essentially comes up with three reasons: 1) the imports build high-quality, good value cars against Detroit's shoddy over-priced vehicles, 2) the culture at these import companies is far more institutionalized and conservative than you find at the Big 3 who tend to veer along the road depending upon their CEO's personality, and 3) the imports take the time to learn what their customers need instead of building cars that they think they want, like Detroit does. In her book Ms. Maynard makes a clear distinction between Detroit and the American auto industry as a whole. As demonstrated by the imports willingness to locate manufacturing and design operations within the United States, the American auto industry is alive and well. Many of the imports' operations in the US are almost completely staffed by Americans. The American workers must first undergo a rigorous training regimen to prove that they can absorb the specific company's unique corporate culture; but, once accomplished, the American workers are given a lot of leeway in their decision making. Ms. Maynard provides a specific focus on five import companies: Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Hyundai, and BMW and the unique paths they each took to their current ascendant position in America. Toyota and Honda are by far the most interesting companies she profiles and not just because they have made the greatest inroads in the American market. Each company is almost an exact opposite from the other excepting their commitments to making quality cars. Ms. Maynard's overarching point to "The End of Detroit" is that the Big 3 long ago ceded control over the future of the American car market to the imports. Now Detroit has to play catch-up and, in effect, mimic the way the imports go about pleasing their customers. With the transfer of market leadership to the imports that means that the focus of the American car market has shifted south, away from the Big 3's operations in the Midwest to the imports' operations in places like Kentucky, Alabama, and South Carolina. One last and very critical point that Ms. Maynard makes is that it is not too late for Detroit to stop its slide from the top. GM, Ford, and Chrysler all have a large well of goodwill that they can pull from in the American consumer. The American car buyer just has to believe that Detroit is giving them a quality product at a good price. Even die hard purchasers of imports could be convinced to buy Detroit cars if they proved superior to the imports. All this being said though, the situation of the Big 3 in the market is not as bad as Ms. Maynard makes out with her title. This is not the end of Detroit. The Big 3 will still have much to say about the shape of the American car market for years to come, even if they don't get their acts together. The far greater danger to Detroit is the legacy costs they have incurred under contracts signed with the United Auto Workers during much better times. These legacy costs, which the imports mostly do not have, add upwards of $2,500 to the cost of every car that Detroit builds relative to the imports. If one of the Big 3 goes bankrupt (or, in Chrysler's case, gets sold off), the cause will almost wholly be attributable to their burgeoning non-operational expenses. However, it is very likely that the UAW would re-negotiate these deals before that happens for fear that the bankrupt company might renege on this obligations altogether as part of a reorganization plan.
Rating:  Summary: Been Done Before Review: Certainly with the problems facing the Big Two of Detroit and the company formerly known as Chrysler, I was looking forward to an enjoyable read while attempting to add one more person's perspective on Detroit's problems and whether or Ms. Maynard's reporting of the same might well be insurmountable, in turn leading to disaster for one or more of our American manufacturers. Sadly, Ms. Maynard should have asked the Society of Automotive Historians if they would volunteer their time to proof read her book, as the numerous little factual errors built up to become a huge disappointment to me. Additionally, Ms. Maynard falls into the trap that so many would be automotive analysts do, oversimplification of the issues at hand. By claiming that Japanese companies like Toyota never make mistakes in determining want the customers want in new products or overstating the German's abilities to capture the mood of the American public's automotive desires, she overlooks vehicles such as the Toyota Echo or Volkswagen's "soon to come to America" Phaeton. As an automotive analyst and historian and a very harsh critic of many of Detroit's missteps along the way, I'm always on the lookout for another person's viewpoint on the present crisis. However, Ms. Maynard's book sheds little new light on the subject and many of her conclusions are simply wrong. That doesn't mean that Detroit isn't in serious trouble, but by my analysis, the current situations that are likely to cause permanent damage to the American automobile industry has little to do with her oversimplification of the market dynamics and how Detroit is reacting to them. And because of her many small but significant mistakes in factual items that should have been corrected by a knowledgeable proofreader, I found it impossible to continue on to finish her book. (For those who don't recall, Brock Yates wrote a similar book on Detroit's problems in the early eighties, only to find his entire thesis discredited within three years of publication by Detroit's resurgence in the market place.)
Rating:  Summary: No "End" In Sight Review: Despite the sensationalistic title, I was hopeful that Ms. Maynard's book would be an insightful and balanced look at the American automobile industry. Sadly, her prejudices become obvious early on and prevent this book from being an objective study of the volatile subject. Ms. Maynard's blind infatuation with import car makers and her recital of every cliche about Detroit ("arrogant," etc.), along with a very subjective interpretation of statistics, make this a book that can only be recommended to someone who needs to assuage their guilt over buying that import mini-van or sedan. The "end" of Detroit? Just because Ms. Maynard writes it, doesn't make it so.
Rating:  Summary: Chance For Change!! Review: Don't be turned off by the title, if you a "Big Three" lover or supporter! Stay opened-minded when reading this book. I love this book. Well written, interesting facts even though some are general. I learned lots of things about the auto industry that I did not know, even though I worked indirectly with the BIG THREE for about 10 years. I could see some of the things happening in the book, but I did not know why? Now I have some answers and explanations why The Big Three and other manufacturers - Toyota, Honda, etc. did what they did! Every person even remotely close to the industry, or if you are just interested, should purchase this book. This book is definately for the "Big Three" executives. As a Detroiter, I hope the "Big Three" will one day thrive again, but I hope this while I love and drive my Camry - because Toyota, not the BIG THREE, heard my call for quality and reliability!
Rating:  Summary: Detroit has already lost the auto business! Review: Folks, although I haven't bought or read "The End of Detroit" I was born, raised a lived in Detroit for 38 years and feel very qualified to present my experiences on this topic. I am now 62 and have purchased and maintained my own cars all of my life. While I lived in Detroit I only purchased American cars, usually new ones and never had one that didn't need frequenct repairs. In fact I thought this was "normal" until I switched to Japanese products after leaving the state and I have not purchased an American car since and have no intentions of ever doing so again. Read any automotive report and you will see that the US auto companies still produce the poorest quality cars around and it is based upon cheap design not labor since the "foreign" cars assembled in the US still maintain high quality. Back to the topic of the book. How many new car plants have been built in the Detroit area over the last 20 years. As far as I know most new plants have been built by foreign manufactures and located in states other than Michigan. So I rest my case. Detroit is no longer the hub of new car production and the US still doesn't know how to compete on quality. /DaveB
Rating:  Summary: Detroit has already lost the auto business! Review: Folks, although I haven't bought or read "The End of Detroit" I was born, raised a lived in Detroit for 38 years and feel very qualified to present my experiences on this topic. I am now 62 and have purchased and maintained my own cars all of my life. While I lived in Detroit I only purchased American cars, usually new ones and never had one that didn't need frequenct repairs. In fact I thought this was "normal" until I switched to Japanese products after leaving the state and I have not purchased an American car since and have no intentions of ever doing so again. Read any automotive report and you will see that the US auto companies still produce the poorest quality cars around and it is based upon cheap design not labor since the "foreign" cars assembled in the US still maintain high quality. Back to the topic of the book. How many new car plants have been built in the Detroit area over the last 20 years. As far as I know most new plants have been built by foreign manufactures and located in states other than Michigan. So I rest my case. Detroit is no longer the hub of new car production and the US still doesn't know how to compete on quality. /DaveB
Rating:  Summary: The End of Detroit Review: I am an avid car guy and have been so for many years. I bought this book because the title was intriguing. I have an open mind and have an appreciation for all types of cars and trucks, the things that make them good and not so good. So I approached this book with the same thought processes. Well, about a quarter way into this book the read started getting hard and I started noticing sketchy journalism. I am well educated and informed on the ins and outs of the auto industry, and I started underlining innacurate information. Then another, then another. Pretty soon, that is what I found myself doing as I continued reading. I had to put the book down as it was just filled with too much "fluff". I have a very difficult time listening to anyone, let alone read from anyone, who does not have their facts straight and is telling you the straight scoop. True, Japan automakers had a quality advantage for most of the 90's, that is about the only fact she had right. That gap has been closed quite a bit since then, and continues to do so. The other numerous blunders she makes in the book and poor journalism I will not bore anyone with. I am sorry I paid the $25.00 for this book. Sadly dissapointed.
|