Rating: 
Summary: Best book on this subject I have ever read
Review: After the many books of the last decade or so that incorrectly predicted depressions based on convoluted wave theories and other hard to swallow ideas, it was a breath of fresh air, albeit shocking, to read this book. It offers seemingly irrefutable arguments for a coming depression of massive proportions, based on very logical demographic principles. The real convincer for me was that it provided real proof for this prediction by showing how the same simple concepts have accounted for the detailed trend of the economy since 1920. A quite remarkable feat. Even the author seems at times to be quite shocked by the accuracy of his results. With concepts that almost effortlessly explained the trend of the economy for the best part of the last 100 years, I found it very easy to believe what the book predicts for our future. Anyone who wants to at least have a fighting financial chance in what is coming our way a few years from now ought to read this book, especially baby boomers.
Rating:
Summary: We Ignore Arnold At Our Peril
Review: Are we heading into the biggest depression of all time? Is it preventable? Who will be affected the most?GUESS! Mr. Arnold addresses these and many more questions in this book. His analysis is so simple enough that anyone can understand why there is cause for concern. With the amount of debt being financed by the US and taken on by other countries, we are definitely waiting for the great vacuum to suck in every investor. From Social Security deficit to the GOld Standard, Arnold hands out reason enough for every American to reconsider their investment strategy and think long term, very long term!
This is required reading for every American. Mason Johnson
President, www.TomorrowsGold.com
Your Online Source for Gold News, Knowledge, and Resource Links
Rating:
Summary: THIS VERY LIKELY WILL OCCUR!
Review: Daniel Arnold illustrates here how the stock market has performed over the last 80 years, and why it has, and he also extrapolates it's performance out to about 2035, with a very bad economic depression starting sometime around 2012. Arnold uses demographics to come to his conclusions and he presents a very solid case indeed. He rightly criticizes stock market analysts for their short term forecasts, and also Alan Greenspan for faulty work also. This is a short, concise, and to the point book, I found it fascinating. About the only possible flaw I saw in this book is that Arnold believes that during the coming depression oil prices may hit [$$] a barrel. But if you read HUBBERT'S PEAK: THE IMPENDING WORLD OIL SHORTAGE by Kenneth Deffeyes, a picture of oil shortages emerges instead, which would exacerbate the economic decline. It will be interesting to see which force wins out here. On a personal note, I remember everyone buying those Nasdaq stocks in a frenzy back in the late 1990's, most of those companies were losing money right and left and their shares were selling for [$$-$$]dollars, or more! I thought it was a good example of "you scratch my back and I'll scratch yours." Of course everyone knows that bubble burst. Japan's stock market bubble burst about 10 years ago, due in large part by an older generation spending less. The United States is headed the way of Japan, the massive post-war generation soon retiring and putting a damper big time on the economy. Arnold uses many graphs in this book, he clearly shows that the next handful of years may be okay, but watch out afterwards, the party may be over in a big way. The final few pages gives advice on what can be done on a personal basis to survive in the tough times ahead. Another interesting book to read, older by a few years is THE RETIREMENT MYTH by Craig Karpel.
Rating:
Summary: Very Highly Recommended - Especially for Younger People
Review: I have read this book several times since ordering it a few months back. The effect has been so powerful and overwhelming that I am going to order copies for my friends and family, and let as many people as possible know about this book and about Mr. Arnold's analysis.
I am a member of Generation X, in my early 30s, and after several years of struggle, my financial situation has improved dramatically over the past year, due to good career decisions, debt reduction, good investments, etc.. Thanks to the advice and foresight Mr. Arnold has provided in his book, I know what I need to do to prepare and survive the coming economic day of reckoning. My concern now is for those who are unaware of just how good we have really had it in the U.S., and why the demographics in this book prove that we will enter a depression of some sort around the 2009 - 2012 area, and this depression will last for 10 years or more.
I would encourage everyone and their friends to visit Mr. Arnold's website at www.thegreatbustahead.com, and read the article he has posted there. This is a good start prior to reading his book.
I used to be an eternal optimist, and now consider myself to be a realist, thanks in part to this book. Don't despair: if you understand what is really going on and prepare for it (as Mr. Arnold points out) you can survive and even flourish during this upcoming depression. I especially like the phrase that was mentioned: Imagine it is 1922-23, and you are aware of the upcoming depression starting in 1929-30. It really provides a sense of clarity.
I especially hope younger people will find out about this book (ages 12 to about 22) because they need to be aware of this upcoming predicted depression as they enter their early and prime working years. By informing themselves as much as possible, they can make the best possible financial decisions (such as minimize debt, build savings, and invest wisely) and build as much financial security as possible to help them survive this time period. If anyone out there knows someone in this age group who can benefit from this advice, I would highly recommend you read the book, and then introduce him or her to it. This is not meant to ruin their hopes for the future, but to educate them on what may likely happen, and to help them make the best possible go at it.
Even though some may dismiss the book as somewhat simplistic, I respectfully disagree. The book makes a lot of logical sense. Some of the best and most meaningful ideas and advice I have received over the years have been very basic, and this book is no exception.
Rating:
Summary: We Ignore Arnold At Our Peril
Review: I read The Great Bust Ahead after reading the five page lead article based on the book in the February 2004 issue of the Professional Investor in the UK, a journal that does not publish articles lightly. (A link to the article is available on the book's website - address is the same as the book's title as one word). Apart from the "disappointed" reviewer who mysteriously wants longer books and more than one theory (sorry Galileo, one theory of the solar system just won't do anymore!), I agree with most of the reviewers - this is a 4 to 5 Star book. The book can be read quickly and easily understood. My first reaction was "surely it can't be this simple". However, the more I examined Arnold's reasons for the premise that the economies in western democracies are driven by demographics and, within that, the booms and busts by a specific simple sub-demographic, the more it became clear that the premise was not only correct it was common sense. The graphical data showing how the US economy has followed this premise not just approximately but precisely for the last 80 years or so, was not just mind-blowing but a revelation. After struggling (unsuccessfully) to understand "wave theories" like Elliot and Kondratiev, which I can now see are pure nonsense explaining nothing historically, Arnold's book is like having a curtain pulled back on a whole new vista. His confident prediction that the economy would pick up again by 2003/4 appears to be right on the button. I now totally believe his forecast that the economy will grow modestly and steadily though 2010 followed by the greatest bust and depression in history. I am able to believe it not just blindly, but because Arnold's logic and facts seem virtually unassailable. As one other reviewer put it - "This is an extremely important piece of work". I am now hard at work planning how to survive what is coming and, for the first time, I have a clear understanding of why I am doing what I am doing financially long-term. We ignore Arnold at our peril.
Rating: 
Summary: Do similar curves establish causality?
Review: I'm suspicious of this experimental method. If I found two curves (Hary Dent's) with a weak resemblance, and I tweaked the derivation of one curve (with some rationalization that people have kids later nowadays) thus achieving a remarkable resemblance to the other, would I have established causality, or would I merely have established that I'm good at selecting data to make two curves match? (I mean that to be an open question.) There is still a leap of faith at the bottom of this book.
I'm also suspicious of large groupings of people, aggregates of spending, and indexes whose constituents change from time to time. What if today's power-spenders haven't saved a penny and decide they have to start? What if their spending has to go to energy while the Dow no longer features energy stocks? What if the money now goes to China -- doesn't the globalization squeeze have any impact on this? What did he assume for inflation after 2002? etc.
Rating: 
Summary: We'll see!
Review: Mr. Arnold is the epitome of doomsaying. He found that from 1920 to 1987 the DJIA tightly fits the graph of the 45-54-age population. Explaining that this age group drives the economy.
Then, his method does not work very well after 1987, and tweaks it with some arbitrary explanations (the pill, immigration, corporate scandals, blah, blah; he kind of lost me there.) In other words, something happened in 1987 that disrupts his theory. Now he reasons that he can predict what will happen when the 45-54-age group will drop sharply around 2010: the big bust. At least he should admit that something new can happen again that will disruput his theory one more time. Anyone can see that the world has stunned us with amazing developments in the last 20 years, and it should not stop. If anything, I can guess why the DJIA has not kept up with the 45-54-age group: becuase now there is better education about money management, more people are smarter about spending their money--The Millionaire Next Door and Suzy Orman must be having an effect.
But then, maybe there is truth to what he says. If the DJIA, peaks at 26,000 to 32,000 around 2010, then people who read his book can be prepared. So, I suggest you read it; you have nothing to lose!
Rating:
Summary: The Alpha Group that Leads the Herd
Review: Mr. Arnold's title attracted my attention because I, like many financial observers, do see a depression on the horizon. His use of the 45-54 year old baby boomer demographic is interesting and echos certain ideas of Elliott Wave Theory and Socionomics.
The author's conclusions, formed using a relationship between U.S. population growth and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, support a coming financial crisis of tsunami proportions, but his optimism that things will not erupt until the beginning of the next decade and his investment recommendations for the immediate future are arguable.
A purchaser of this hour-long read would be advised to immerse himself in Robert Prechter's, Conquer the Crash and Fiancial Reckoning Day by Bonner and Wiggin. These books better illustrate the world as it is, bringing together the influence of world money supplies, gold, interest rates, world politics and, very importantly, social mood.
Where Daniel Arnold sees the correlation of the population and the Dow Jones, Prechter documents the predictive value of the Dow in measuring social mood. I would allow that Mr. Arnold has accurately pegged the 45-54 year olds as the alpha group that leads the population's mood, or herd mentality, as a result of its purchasing and investing power.
Read this book. Look at the charts. Just don't make any immediate investment decisions without considering that our world is on the verge of a massive "asset devaluation" that will transcend stocks, bonds, real estate, and for a time, precious metals. The looming possibility of a world-wide liquidity crisis triggering liquidation of assets to cover the costs of mounting debt, should be of greater concern.
Arnold issues several warnings, should his predictions come true, and offers a number of actions individuals may take. Most notably, he supports why personal property most likely will be at risk to theft or destruction in an environment of rising unemployment and rising crime, but on page 51 advocates, "even if you would not support gun-control during healthy times, consider supporting gun control legislation to help take the dangerous edge off the crime wave that will hit during the depression." Libertarians and 2nd Amendment supporters will have a real hard time with that one.
Rating:
Summary: Projections are often wrong ... lets hope this one is.
Review: There certainly are a lot of serious issues with our financial system, but this and other books that claim a depression is inevitable are as likely wrong as right. If you have been a student of this genre for a while you know that there are always books predicting doom and gloom. Ravi Batra must have made millions in the 80s and early 90s selling books like this. Before him there were others. The facts are that while we've had some pretty big reversals in the stock market we haven't seen anything like the Great Depression since then. One can speculate we might, but it's only speculation. (If you can't remember all the way back to Ravi Batra how about Y2K?)
So it could happen, but the reviewer who said "now I know there will be a depression", well I would humbly submit that, no, you don't know. You may see some warning signs but the future is not easily predicted.
The market for "survive the coming crash" books however appears strong. Perhaps this is an unstudied economic indicator?
Rating:
Summary: The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
Review: This book is a fascinating read and I recommend it. But I can't help but think the author is acting like Chicken Little. First off, the author does NOT have an Economics background. Having said this, many prominent economists would agree with his conclusion that a great economic downturn will occur around 2011 after a great boom. The crux of the author's argument is that the consumer spending of 45-54 year olds drive the economy. In fact, there is a strong correleation between the the number of 45-54 yr olds in the demographics and the Dow Jones. By 2011, as the number of 45-54 yr olds decline, so will the Dow Jones. The author fails, however, to point out the correlation between the Dow Jones and economic indicators such as unemployment, productivity, and GDP. This is a huge missing link to his argument. There are other factors which the author does not address, such as technological growth that is driving up the productivity. The fact that the Great Depression was caused by, not only the demographics, but wildly unregulated financial system is totally ommitted.
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