The Gorilla Game : Picking Winners in High Technology

Rating:
Summary: Reverse Engineering to Invest in Intel, Cisco and Microsoft
Review: A popular pastime for the past 50 years (and possibly before that) has been to look at the stocks that would have made you the most money in the last 10 or 20 years and devise an investment approach to find the next ones going forward that will do as well or better. I have lost count of how many books I have read that have taken this approach.

I found the Gorilla Game to be refreshingly above the pack in this area. The authors do an excellent job of describing some of the ways that technologies get adopted, when the stocks do well (and when they don't), and when to buy and sell stocks in technology companies. They also devise a fairly detailed, somewhat risk-controlled investment process, and detail how it would have done in a number of case histories. From the backward-looking perspective, the book is solid.

The weakness of such backward looking methods shows up in their new material in the revised edition (1999) on the Internet. Although some aspects of their model apply to the Internet, many do not. They are left needing to vaguely explain how so much money was made so quickly in Internet stocks. Their explanation is actually pretty solid, but they never quite come out and say that their methodology will not get you all of the fast-growing stocks in technology.

They needed not be defensive. No methodology is perfect. The main weakness of this one is that is designed around semiconductors, software, and computers. The technology patterns can look a lot different in future technologies. For example, what will happen with companies like Gemstar that lead in new television technologies that could disrupt the Internet for direct marketing? The reason this point is important is that the barriers to switching are higher in the technologies studied here than in many other areas. If you get into a low cost of switching area (like business to consumer marketing on the Internet), you could invest in an industry leader and still lose your shirt. Although the book acknowledges these issues, it probably doesn't create a substantial enough warning.

The book is aimed at the medium knowledge investor (about the markets and technology). I hope they bring out a more advanced version. They decided not to go into specialized semiconductors like analog devices where enormous profits may lie in the future, because of concerns about not going over the heads of readers. A lot of the best run technology companies with enormous growth potential in markets with high bariers to competitors were not discussed in this book. I am sure most readers would be willing to spend some time learning about these other markets in order to make enormous gains.

Despite my quibbles, this is a fine book that will help all but those who are already quite knowledgeable about technology companies and technology investing. Good luck in capturing those irresistible gains in the future! Perhaps you will be the first person you know to identify the next irresistible growth enterprise!

Rating:
Summary: Suggestions for Finding the Stock to Make You a Millionaire!
Review: Everyone has wondered how they could have latched onto a stock that would have turned a few thousand dollars into over a million. In recent years, EMC, Cisco, and Microsoft provided such opportunities. Yet few bought and held those stocks to get the full benefit of the ride. In this book, you will find some ideas for locating the next stocks that could do this for you. Keep in mind that the odds are long against you though. A lot of serendipity is involved.

A popular pastime for the past 50 years (and possibly before that) has been to look at the stocks that would have made you the most money in the last 10 or 20 years and then to devise an investment approach to find the next ones going forward that will do as well or better. I have lost count of how many books I have read that have taken this approach.

I found the Gorilla Game to be refreshingly above the pack in this area. The authors do an excellent job of describing some of the ways that technologies get adopted, when the stocks do well (and when they don't), and when to buy and sell stocks in technology companies. They also devise a fairly detailed, somewhat risk-controlled investment process, and detail how it would have done in a number of case histories. From the backward-looking perspective, the book is solid.

The weakness of such backward looking methods shows up in their new material in the revised edition (1999) on the Internet. Although some aspects of their model apply to the Internet, many do not. They are left needing to vaguely explain how so much money was made so quickly in Internet stocks (before they began to plummet to nothing in March 2000). Their explanation is actually pretty solid, but they never quite come out and say that their methodology will not get you all of the fast-growing stocks in technology. I doubt if any methodology could do that for you.

They needed not be defensive. No methodology is perfect. The main weakness of this one is that is designed around semiconductors, software, and computers. The technology patterns can look a lot different in future technologies. For example, what will happen with companies like Gemstar that lead in new television technologies that could disrupt the Internet for direct marketing? The reason this point is important is that the barriers to switching are higher in the technologies studied here than in many other areas. If you get into a low cost of switching sector (like business to consumer marketing on the Internet), you could invest in an industry leader and still lose your shirt. Although the book acknowledges these issues, it probably doesn't create a substantial enough warning.

The book is aimed at the medium knowledge investor (about the markets and technology). I hope they bring out a more advanced version. They decided not to go into specialized semiconductors like analog devices where enormous profits may lie in the future, because of concerns about not going over the heads of readers. A lot of the best run technology companies with enormous growth potential in markets with high bariers to competitors were not discussed in this book. I am sure most readers would be willing to spend some time learning about these other markets in order to make enormous gains.

Despite my quibbles, this is a fine book that will help all but those who are already quite knowledgeable about technology companies and technology investing. Good luck in capturing those irresistible gains in the future! Perhaps you will be the first person you know to identify the next irresistible growth enterprise that creates over a thousand to one gain! I hope you do.

May you be that one person in one hundred who outperforms the market over a lifetime.

Otherwise, I suggest you play the odds and buy indexed mutual funds. John Bogle's book, Common Sense about Mutual Funds, will be very helpful to you in this regard.

Rating:
Summary: Suggestions for Finding the Stock to Make You a Millionaire!
Review: Everyone has wondered how they could have latched onto a stock that would have turned a few thousand dollars into over a million. In recent years, EMC, Cisco, and Microsoft provided such opportunities. Yet few bought and held those stocks to get the full benefit of the ride. In this book, you will find some ideas for locating the next stocks that could do this for you. Keep in mind that the odds are long against you though. A lot of serendipity is involved.

A popular pastime for the past 50 years (and possibly before that) has been to look at the stocks that would have made you the most money in the last 10 or 20 years and then to devise an investment approach to find the next ones going forward that will do as well or better. I have lost count of how many books I have read that have taken this approach.

I found the Gorilla Game to be refreshingly above the pack in this area. The authors do an excellent job of describing some of the ways that technologies get adopted, when the stocks do well (and when they don't), and when to buy and sell stocks in technology companies. They also devise a fairly detailed, somewhat risk-controlled investment process, and detail how it would have done in a number of case histories. From the backward-looking perspective, the book is solid.

The weakness of such backward looking methods shows up in their new material in the revised edition (1999) on the Internet. Although some aspects of their model apply to the Internet, many do not. They are left needing to vaguely explain how so much money was made so quickly in Internet stocks (before they began to plummet to nothing in March 2000). Their explanation is actually pretty solid, but they never quite come out and say that their methodology will not get you all of the fast-growing stocks in technology. I doubt if any methodology could do that for you.

They needed not be defensive. No methodology is perfect. The main weakness of this one is that is designed around semiconductors, software, and computers. The technology patterns can look a lot different in future technologies. For example, what will happen with companies like Gemstar that lead in new television technologies that could disrupt the Internet for direct marketing? The reason this point is important is that the barriers to switching are higher in the technologies studied here than in many other areas. If you get into a low cost of switching sector (like business to consumer marketing on the Internet), you could invest in an industry leader and still lose your shirt. Although the book acknowledges these issues, it probably doesn't create a substantial enough warning.

The book is aimed at the medium knowledge investor (about the markets and technology). I hope they bring out a more advanced version. They decided not to go into specialized semiconductors like analog devices where enormous profits may lie in the future, because of concerns about not going over the heads of readers. A lot of the best run technology companies with enormous growth potential in markets with high bariers to competitors were not discussed in this book. I am sure most readers would be willing to spend some time learning about these other markets in order to make enormous gains.

Despite my quibbles, this is a fine book that will help all but those who are already quite knowledgeable about technology companies and technology investing. Good luck in capturing those irresistible gains in the future! Perhaps you will be the first person you know to identify the next irresistible growth enterprise that creates over a thousand to one gain! I hope you do.

May you be that one person in one hundred who outperforms the market over a lifetime.

Otherwise, I suggest you play the odds and buy indexed mutual funds. John Bogle's book, Common Sense about Mutual Funds, will be very helpful to you in this regard.

Rating:
Summary: Great insight even for the non-investor
Review: Great insight into what makes a Microsoft, Oracle, Cisco, or other high-tech monster. Very instructive for spotting trends even if you are not into investing.

Sadly funny (in hindsight) closing remarks, however, when mentioning criteria for the gorilla-game theory to work: "...you need equity markets which have... high legal integrity... in the realms of ethics and legal integrity, US markets lead the world in policing their own ranks...". In light of the many recent financial scandals I'm sure the authors will rephrase this in the next edition.

Rating:
Summary: Very useful to the average guy but little on valuation
Review: Having worked on Wall Street in research I can say that this book is a must read for technology investors. I thoroughly enjoyed the book and I believe that, in a very simple manner, the authors lay out the evolution of technology giants within different sectors. They help you identify the next "800 Lb. Gorilla," which may generate substantial returns for investors.

If there is any weakness it is that very little is provided in terms of how do you value these companies. Most past "gorillas" came public with very modest valuations but in today's markets many companies are coming out at higher valuations, providing less upside in the long-term. The reason is that many investors are more astute than in the past and are seeking to find these "gorillas." Therefore, the problem that lies before the investor is how to find the gorilla before the pros do. Too many pros and individuals tried to find them in the past 2 years and only got burned (they were all greedy going after the hopes of generating such returns and the possibility that one would be the "800 lb gorilla.")

If you want to learn about technology life cycles, product differentiation and what to look for in the next decade's giants I recommend this book but recognize that it provides little in terms of valuation exercises.

Rating:
Summary: Great ideas for building companies, bad for investing
Review: Hindsight is 20/20. The hindsight that allowed Geoffrey Moore to put a book out on tech investing adidst the high tech bubble is also the hindsight that allows me to pan it, so I can not claim any great wisdom.

The central concept presented in the Gorilla Game is that winners and losers in the technology industry industry are determined by the 800 pound gorillas. The first company to become an 800 pound gorilla (Microsoft, Cisco, Intel, etc.) creates a long term sustainable competitive advantage by making platform decisions that favor themselves. This concept is still very true today. The companies that drive standards and create barriers to entry are the winners in high tech.

The challenge here, though, is the stock market has caught up to that idea. For a short period in the mid-90s, the standard bearers were undervalued. The pendulum went the other way, and they rapidly became overvalued by the end of the decade. People who bought into the "I'll be safe with the gorillas" got burned with everyone else when the tech bubble burst. Following Moore's investing advice would've cost you a lot of money.

Does this mean the book is worthless? No... It will still help you pick relative winners and losers (Microsoft, Cisco and Intel are all still around) and it is good as a management tool. Unlike other markets where multiple winners can share the spoils (Many companies can make money selling soap) in technology the biggest really does have a huge advantage.

Rating:
Summary: Business strategies as well as investing!
Review: I found this book to be a huge learning experience, I'm not seeing business strategies a lot clearer! I was undecided whether to get this book or not due to the high price, but I'm sure glad I did! If you don't understand details of the high tech market or would like to understand it better you'll learn a lot.

Rating:
Summary: GREAT INSIGHT ON HOW AN INVESTOR CAN WIN ON WALL STREET
Review: I try to read all the newest stock market books. This one is full of new insights that I will be able to profit by in my future trades. This book should be in the library of all serious investors. Another book that I highly recommend for those who are interested in picking high tech stocks is MAKING DOLLARS WITH PENNIES: HOW THE SMALL INVESTOR CAN BEAT THE WIZARDS ON WALL STREET by R. Max Bowser. Bowser has 25 profitable years of investing in high tech as well as other stocks, mostly in the low-priced range. Bowser explains twelve factors that one should look at before picking a stock. His system is compatable with the methods written about in THE GORILLA GAME.

Rating:
Summary: The Gorilla Game
Review: Let me qualify my remarks; I'm a Registered Investment Advisor. I make a living investing Other People's Money. I'm 67 years old, so you know I've been around for awhile.

That said, Gorilla Investing is one of the best investment books I've ever read, and that covers a lot of ground, believe it!

My only complaint is the high collateral cost of reading Geoff Moore's work. Highlighters! I burn 'em! (I wonder if his publisher has considered printing his books on yellow paper?)

Rating:
Summary: The Gorilla Game : Picking Winners in High Technology
Review: Save your money. This is a typical 20/20 hind sight financial book. The authors back test their ideas to prove them .... why did'nt you buy Intel, Microsoft etc. when they were cheap? This book will not help you make investment decisions.