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Rating: 
Summary: Your Results May Vary!
Review: Being a Libertarian myself, I have been a huge fan of H.Browne for almost 10years. Books such as "How I found Freedom in an Unfree World" really has changed my outlook on a lot of issues. That being said, this book is basically the Cliff notes to his 1987, 550plus page tome entitled "Why the Best-Laid Investment Plans Usually Go Wrong". I had been hesitating in breaking up my nest egg into the specifications of the "Permanent Portfolio", so I ordered this book in order to have an update of his methods. As you may know the Permanent Portfolio is broken into 25%Gold, 25%Cash, 25% Stocks, and 25% bonds. The book quotes 10% rate of return, but specifics about how he derives those numbers weren't too clear... Strangely, I wan't able to find any quotes/charts on the Motley Fool website (or anywhere else on a cursory Google search) so, I took out a piece of paper, went through the data available to a layman like myself on the prices of Gold, T-bills, Bonds, and Stocks (from index funds) in the 25% breakdown spelled out in the book. The verdict? Well, at the end of the period from 1993-2002, if you had invested 4K in an SP 500 index fund, you'd still be 19% ahead of where you started (peak was 88% two years ago). If you had invested in 5% CD compounded yearly, you'd be 55% ahead of the initial investment.
And, if you had a Permanent Portfolio, reorganized as directed every year, you'd be negative 21%...That's right. A ...investment was now worth [money]. I admit maybe I somehow made a mistake in my calculations... but I followed his instructions pretty closely in my calculations reaching back in the 9yr time frame. I arranged the research portfolio as I would have if my money had been riding on it. I also think if the performance of the Permanent Portfolio was better, I'd be able to find some kind of quote by a 3rd party. In Mr Browne's defense, if you closely read the first half of his book, Rule #5 recommends the reader to beware of the "experts"...I suppose that may be his subconsious way to offset the guilt of making the sort of recommendations which may ultimately cost his readers thousands of dollars. But don't take my anonymous word for it. Go back a few years and do a test Portfolio to see if you do better. As for myself, I'm convinced that I'd be better off hiding it all in my matress.
Rating:
Summary: Your Results May Vary!
Review: Being a Libertarian myself, I have been a huge fan of H.Browne for almost 10years. Books such as "How I found Freedom in an Unfree World" really has changed my outlook on a lot of issues. That being said, this book is basically the Cliff notes to his 1987, 550plus page tome entitled "Why the Best-Laid Investment Plans Usually Go Wrong". I had been hesitating in breaking up my nest egg into the specifications of the "Permanent Portfolio", so I ordered this book in order to have an update of his methods. As you may know the Permanent Portfolio is broken into 25%Gold, 25%Cash, 25% Stocks, and 25% bonds. The book quotes 10% rate of return, but specifics about how he derives those numbers weren't too clear... Strangely, I wan't able to find any quotes/charts on the Motley Fool website (or anywhere else on a cursory Google search) so, I took out a piece of paper, went through the data available to a layman like myself on the prices of Gold, T-bills, Bonds, and Stocks (from index funds) in the 25% breakdown spelled out in the book. The verdict? Well, at the end of the period from 1993-2002, if you had invested 4K in an SP 500 index fund, you'd still be 19% ahead of where you started (peak was 88% two years ago). If you had invested in 5% CD compounded yearly, you'd be 55% ahead of the initial investment.
And, if you had a Permanent Portfolio, reorganized as directed every year, you'd be negative 21%...That's right. A ...investment was now worth [money]. I admit maybe I somehow made a mistake in my calculations... but I followed his instructions pretty closely in my calculations reaching back in the 9yr time frame. I arranged the research portfolio as I would have if my money had been riding on it. I also think if the performance of the Permanent Portfolio was better, I'd be able to find some kind of quote by a 3rd party. In Mr Browne's defense, if you closely read the first half of his book, Rule #5 recommends the reader to beware of the "experts"...I suppose that may be his subconsious way to offset the guilt of making the sort of recommendations which may ultimately cost his readers thousands of dollars. But don't take my anonymous word for it. Go back a few years and do a test Portfolio to see if you do better. As for myself, I'm convinced that I'd be better off hiding it all in my matress.
Rating: 
Summary: Great book for Investor
Review: Harry Browne tells you how to avoid mistakes in your investments strategy,and gives the principles of the best investments.
Rating: 
Summary: Powerful Little Nuggets of Wisdom
Review: Honestly, while it takes longer than the thirty minutes advertised on the jacket and first few pages of the book to read through all seventeen rules, the extra time spent is well worth it. Mr. Browne offers the reader simple rules to learn and help one preserve and grow money wisely. As such, it tells you the easiest ways to lose money, and how to avoid them. Although I do not agree with his recommended approach to investing, I do agree entirely with the essence of his seventeen rules which superbly present common finance and investment misconceptions and skillfully refute them. Speaking of his seventeen rules, the first five can be condensed into one simple rule: Forecasting = Fortune Telling. From Browne, we learn that no one can predict the future, yet many of us entrust our hard-earned money without any hesitation to modern day Gypsies- financial planners, emoneyf (mutual fund) managers and stockbrokers, who constantly tell us that they can predict the future using sophisticated eeconometricf forecasting tools. Browne reminds us that our wealth begins with what we earn, not with what we invest, and before we can invest, we have to earn. Although we can always borrow our way to bankruptcy with ease, we can borrow our way to prosperity only in our dreams. In the end, basing our earnings won through blood and sweat on the elaborate crystal-ball gazing of financial witch-doctors is the surest path to losses and total ruin. Browne also delivers plain talk on risk, investment and speculation, and tells the reader that no one can ever hope to eliminate risk entirely. The best anyone can do is to develop realistic strategies for dealing with risk. As such, it becomes painfully clear that there is no such thing as a risk-free investment. This even includes for example so-called erisk-freef US Government Securities backed merely by the full faith and credit of the United States Government (I personally wonft think any less of the reader who laughs at that last sentence). Who knows what the future holds, and just because the worst-case scenario- a default or bankruptcy, has never happened does not necessarily mean that it can not happen tomorrow. In keeping with this, his thirteenth rule exhorts us to keep some assets outside of our native country, and is a brilliant touch. I had to laugh when I read the various calamities- natural and unnatural, which could befall our investments in our native country. However, one should keep in mind that such calamities can occur in ANY country. Also, holding some assets outside the US may not provide the secrecy or safety Browne says it will impart, simply because of the inter-connectedness of the global economy and the incredibly long reach of the US government. At no point does the book let the reader off of the hook. We ultimately bear the responsibility for our investment decisions, and Mr. Browne is absolutely right when he says to never assume that what you have earned today can be easily earned tomorrow. Throughout the book, Mr. Browne wants to remind the reader of three things. First, it is hard to earn a dollar, yet even in the face of this generally accepted truism, there are those who want you to believe that you can get rich quick simply by making bets based on their uninformed, though highly elaborate, predictions about unpredictable events. Second, you know more than the so-called eexpertsf want you to think you know. The experts want you to disregard your common sense and put your trust in their opinion. Third, in the world of investing, what goes up eventually comes down, and even more important, what goes down does not necessarily have to go back up. As Browne pointedly remarks over and over again, in the world of investing, nothing is supposed to happen, and anything can happen. As such, the last five of his seventeen rules can be summarized as: Sophisticated = Stupid and Simple = Smart. Finally, for those of us, including myself, who feel as if they have missed out on the Greatest Bull Market of All Time, fear not, for there will be other opportunities. After all, the last Greatest Bull Market of All Time occurred just before the Great Crash of 1929. As Browne tells the reader at the end of the book, you are not a failure if you missed the boat. To this I must add: You are not a failure if you missed the boat- especially if the boat was the Titanic! I think there are a lot of bruised and broken investors from the New Era Internet Boom (and subsequent Bust) that will wholeheartedly agree with me, as the last six years have been their figurative Titanic. These individuals especially need to read, and re-read this book as they invest going forward. Bringing Las Vegas to a living room near you!
Rating:
Summary: Powerful Little Nuggets of Wisdom
Review: Honestly, while it takes longer than the thirty minutes advertised on the jacket and first few pages of the book to read through all seventeen rules, the extra time spent is well worth it. Mr. Browne offers the reader simple rules to learn and help one preserve and grow money wisely. As such, it tells you the easiest ways to lose money, and how to avoid them. Although I do not agree with his recommended approach to investing, I do agree entirely with the essence of his seventeen rules which superbly present common finance and investment misconceptions and skillfully refute them. Speaking of his seventeen rules, the first five can be condensed into one simple rule: Forecasting = Fortune Telling. From Browne, we learn that no one can predict the future, yet many of us entrust our hard-earned money without any hesitation to modern day Gypsies- financial planners, ÂemoneyÂf (mutual fund) managers and stockbrokers, who constantly tell us that they can predict the future using sophisticated ÂeeconometricÂf forecasting tools. Browne reminds us that our wealth begins with what we earn, not with what we invest, and before we can invest, we have to earn. Although we can always borrow our way to bankruptcy with ease, we can borrow our way to prosperity only in our dreams. In the end, basing our earnings won through blood and sweat on the elaborate crystal-ball gazing of financial witch-doctors is the surest path to losses and total ruin. Browne also delivers plain talk on risk, investment and speculation, and tells the reader that no one can ever hope to eliminate risk entirely. The best anyone can do is to develop realistic strategies for dealing with risk. As such, it becomes painfully clear that there is no such thing as a risk-free investment. This even includes for example so-called Âerisk-freeÂf US Government Securities backed merely by the full faith and credit of the United States Government (I personally wonÂft think any less of the reader who laughs at that last sentence). Who knows what the future holds, and just because the worst-case scenario- a default or bankruptcy, has never happened does not necessarily mean that it can not happen tomorrow. In keeping with this, his thirteenth rule exhorts us to keep some assets outside of our native country, and is a brilliant touch. I had to laugh when I read the various calamities- natural and unnatural, which could befall our investments in our native country. However, one should keep in mind that such calamities can occur in ANY country. Also, holding some assets outside the US may not provide the secrecy or safety Browne says it will impart, simply because of the inter-connectedness of the global economy and the incredibly long reach of the US government. At no point does the book let the reader off of the hook. We ultimately bear the responsibility for our investment decisions, and Mr. Browne is absolutely right when he says to never assume that what you have earned today can be easily earned tomorrow. Throughout the book, Mr. Browne wants to remind the reader of three things. First, it is hard to earn a dollar, yet even in the face of this generally accepted truism, there are those who want you to believe that you can get rich quick simply by making bets based on their uninformed, though highly elaborate, predictions about unpredictable events. Second, you know more than the so-called ÂeexpertsÂf want you to think you know. The experts want you to disregard your common sense and put your trust in their opinion. Third, in the world of investing, what goes up eventually comes down, and even more important, what goes down does not necessarily have to go back up. As Browne pointedly remarks over and over again, in the world of investing, nothing is supposed to happen, and anything can happen. As such, the last five of his seventeen rules can be summarized as: Sophisticated = Stupid and Simple = Smart. Finally, for those of us, including myself, who feel as if they have missed out on the Greatest Bull Market of All Time, fear not, for there will be other opportunities. After all, the last Greatest Bull Market of All Time occurred just before the Great Crash of 1929. As Browne tells the reader at the end of the book, you are not a failure if you missed the boat. To this I must add: You are not a failure if you missed the boat- especially if the boat was the Titanic! I think there are a lot of bruised and broken investors from the New Era Internet Boom (and subsequent Bust) that will wholeheartedly agree with me, as the last six years have been their figurative Titanic. These individuals especially need to read, and re-read this book as they invest going forward. Bringing Las Vegas to a living room near you!
Rating:
Summary: The Latest and Greatest Version is HERE
Review: I just found the newest and LAST investment book by Harry Browne:
http://www.libertyfree.com/FailSafe/FSI-Home.htm
Rating:
Summary: Financial Safety in a Nutshell
Review: I rate this book five stars, less for the contents of this book on its own, but rather for the series of books that Mr. Brown put out in the '80's, _Why the best laid investment plans go wrong_ in particular. This book contains the heart of those earlier books without all of the explanation, which may be why the point of it missed the earlier reviewer. Browne suggests dividing ones portfolio into two sections -- a "variable portfolio" that you can speculate with and a "permanent portfolio" which should be set up to survive *any* possible financial disaster, war, revolution, natural disaster, or whatever. He achieves this by diversifying in several different classes of investment, at least one of which should be helped by whatever happens. So if it's hyperinflation that arrives, and stocks and bonds are tanking, the gold part of your portfolio will go through the roof -- if the great depression comes back, the bond part of your portfolio will skyrocket. Whatever happens, the overall value of your portfolio should move gradually upward. I know now that some people are laughing, what gold? Nobody invests in gold any more. You need to understand that Browne is advacating an investment strategy for the ages. So what if gold is in the dumps for a decade or two? When that disaster we can't even conceive of wrecks the world economy in 2020, won't you be glad you've got that gold bullion in an offshore account to help you rebuild your life. The "permanent portfolio" is not about getting rich quick, it's about avoiding becoming poor quick. The "variable portfolio" is about getting rich quick, if you can. I first read Browne's advice a couple of decades ago when I was living overseas and had just had the fun of going through a coup against the government that involved three days of firefights between govt troops and rebels *inside* the bank where every dime I owned was kept. Mr. Browne is right. Nobody knows what will happen next. If you have money you can't afford to lose, you have to be ready for anything, and Harry Browne gives you the tools to do so.
Rating:
Summary: Way too conservative
Review: Yes, I did found this work to be way too conservative.
Author stops short of saying: "Put all your money in the CD's".
In general his advices, although sound, is way too general. He makes such statements as "nobody knows for sure, which direction the market goes", "spread the risk", "speculate with money you can afford to lose", etc. Well, yeah! Honestly, I expected better.
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