Deflation; Why It's Coming, Whether It's Good or Bad, and How It Will Affect Your Investments, Business, and Personal Affairs

Rating:
Summary: Shilling's use of Kondratieff theory
Review: A careful look at the book shows that Shilling's THEORY for deflation is based on the longwaves of Kondratieff. Unfortunately, Shilling uses a real rather than monetary interpretation of longwaves which results in his use of 1974 rather than 1980 as the beginning of the current wave down.

Rating:
Summary: Excellent book. A must read.
Review: Dr. Shilling's book is very well written. While it reinforced my suspicions that we are entering a deflationary era, it also provided a necessary historical perspective about "good" and "bad" deflations -- necessary perspective because most people (including me before reading this book) associate the word deflation with the Great Depression. The author's writing style makes the topic accessible to everyone. The book loses one star because of the lack of an index.

Rating:
Summary: Excellent book, easy to read, in depth analysis
Review: I found this easy-to-read book very profound in its analysis of the inflation-disinflation-deflation pattern that we are witnessing today.

The book is filled with charts that highlight the author's message. The last several chapters on investment, business, and personal strategies are priceless.

No weasel words in this book. Lots of forecasts.

John D.

Rating:
Summary: Informed & rational summary of a plausible scenario.
Review: Shilling predicts good - rather than bad deflation (at least for the USA): i.e. surging demand absorbing excess supply because of price falls. It is a US-centric view - weaker on the international side. Deflation addresses an important & neglected subject. The slow start is tolerable because of good, up-to-date graphs and data generally. Happily he is consultant-clear rather than economist-arcane. His analysis of the US economy is compelling & useful for foreign readers. Nonetheless, there are questions: will policymakers (including central bankers) not adjust; e.g. I understand that defense spending has started rising again. Shilling's review of factors such as the internet is useful. The foreign material is poorer - though his Asian chapters are good. Bizarrely for such a serious & scholarly work, there is no index.

Shilling is worth reading - he thinks the west will experience 'good' rather than 'bad' deflation - but how deep will the Deflation be and how long will it last? He could have usefully studied natural resources in more depth; after all, this is where deflation hit hardest and earliest. I will read him again.