The 100% Return Options Trading Strategy

Rating:
Summary: Not That bad!
Review: I found this book valuable in the development of my options trading strategy. I do not follow it to the letter but I think it provides great food for thought. It's not great, it's not perfect, but it's not horrible either for someone looking for ways to trade. Dr. Schiller has answered my e-mails to him every time I had a question. In summary, I believe there are better ways to trade credit spreads but I probably wouldn't be doing it at all were it not for this book.

Rating:
Summary: Not suitable for the beginner
Review: Mr. Schiller has a PhD, but his book does not reflect much quality control went into its composition. There are missing figures, but yet referenced in the text. The book lacks an index. Several words are abbreviated, but there is no apparent explanation for them. I get the feeling this book went from first draft directly to publication. The hefty price is not justified. I am glad I only borrowed it from a library. The one purpose of the book seems to be to promote Excel spreadsheets he has created to track the OEX; and their prices are equally inflated. Why must you, Mr. Schiller, sell them from Spain? Isn't trading the OEX sufficiently profitable by itself?

Rating:
Summary: Poor explanations of how to generate indicators
Review: On p. 96-104 the author attempts to give spreadsheet formulas to compute stochastics, Welles Wilder RSI, and two other indicators he recommends. The formulas are outright wrong for the Stochastics %K-%D signal. Had someone proofread or even tried to recreate these in Excel, it would be blatantly obvious they are wrong. Upon contacting the author at his email address, he suggested that I pay him to receive the full version of the spreadsheet for several hundred dollars, rather than giving me the correction to the wrong information in his book. Also, on p. 78, the computations of the "safe" strike prices are based on erroneous data. I compared historic data from the time frame he references and it looks like he omitted data from August 1996 and just relabeled all of the rows so that the data from Nov-94 through Aug-96 is actually for Dec-94 through Jul-96. The Mar-97 MAX data appears suspect, being 10.33 rather than 10.25. The Aug-97 data for MAX and MIN appears suspect, being 43.63 and 1.59, rather than 42.72 and 26.50, respectively. It also appears that he is using the wrong standard deviation function to compute sigma. You can't duplicate his numbers in the C2sig13 and P2sig13 columns with the data he provided in the table in Figure 5.1.

His latest newsletter shows that the "safe" strike price for the February 2000 short puts was 720, but if you followed the instructions in his book, you would have sold the Feb 745 puts short and been out 22 points per contract on naked puts, or you would have lost your entire spread when the market dumped from 752.19 to 728.52 on options expiration Friday in February. His system for mitigating losses would not have worked either because when the market broached 745 that day, you would have paid about 6 points to close out a losing spread that you may only have received 1-2 points to open. These spreads he advocates are based on some very fast and loose statistical claims and not very thoroughly explained at all. Very dangerous!