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Summary: The shape of things to come
Review: Absolutely amazing book! Castells has done it again!
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Summary: A Venture In Social Forecasting
Review: The Coming of the Post Industrial Society; A Venture in Social Forecasting by Daniel Bell Daniel Bell is a renowned sociologist and post-Marxist, his prophetic book was first published in 1976 and republished in 1999 accompanied with a new foreword by the author. Since 1976 many of the concepts, theories and phrases Bell pioneered have become naturalised, universal conventions, and thus Bell should, most definitely, be considered a futurist.
This definitive book explores the `coming age' and evaluates how this new Post Industrial Society will alter the structure of society. As Bell openly concedes `the sociologist is always tempted to play the prophet and if not the prophet the seer' (Chapter 1). He does, however, explain that the `forecasting' he attempts is different from predicting. For, forecasting is only possible where there are `regularities and recurrences of phenomenon (and these are rare). It is only possible where one can assume a high degree of rationality on the part of the man who influences events-agreement to follow the rules'. And it seems that Bell's sociological background has given him the required understanding. The new foreword shows considerable contemplation of the books success. Bell explains how there has been an unprecedented increase in the use of the phrase `post industrial society' but he is not complacent, rather he underlines the lack of `specificity as to what is connotes'. He describes how the general usage of the phrase, which is often used in reference to the decline in manufacturing and industry, does not acknowledge the parallel changes in social structure, social organisation and the new classes that will be, and have been created, specifically the class of knowledge (this theme is further explored in chapter 3, entitled The New Class Structure of the Post Industrial Society).[ Bell adamantly argues that his vision of the Post Industrial Society does not see the old one displaced by the new, rather a synthesis emerges in which the new society will overlay the old one in profound ways, much as industrialisation continues to coexist within the agrarian sectors of our society.] Thus it seems that Bell does not merely use the new foreword to hail his work a success but to redress, the misunderstood, misinterpreted or inadequately adopted parts of his social forecast. Bell explains how it is inadequate to define the new society primarily by the services but he does see the productive nature of them. While society naturally embraces the three distinctions of industry as primary, secondary and tertiary in the new foreword Bell makes further distinctions by suggesting `quaternary' (covering trade and finance) and `quinary' (health and education), these are the involved in the economics of information not goods or labour. And thus it seems that while Bell has pioneered he wants to pioneer further. He further states that the central and novel feature of the Post Industrial Society is the `codification of theoretical knowledge and new relation of science to technology'. Major developments of the 20th century came from revolutions in physics and biology as opposed to the `inspired and talented tinkerers' like Alexander Graham Bell. This suggests the increasing dependence on science as a means of technical and social change, and science is wholly dependent on knowledge and information.
Rating:
Summary: A Venture In Social Forecasting
Review: The Coming of the Post Industrial Society; A Venture in Social Forecasting by Daniel Bell Daniel Bell is a renowned sociologist and post-Marxist, his prophetic book was first published in 1976 and republished in 1999 accompanied with a new foreword by the author. Since 1976 many of the concepts, theories and phrases Bell pioneered have become naturalised, universal conventions, and thus Bell should, most definitely, be considered a futurist.
This definitive book explores the 'coming age' and evaluates how this new Post Industrial Society will alter the structure of society. As Bell openly concedes 'the sociologist is always tempted to play the prophet and if not the prophet the seer' (Chapter 1). He does, however, explain that the 'forecasting' he attempts is different from predicting. For, forecasting is only possible where there are 'regularities and recurrences of phenomenon (and these are rare). It is only possible where one can assume a high degree of rationality on the part of the man who influences events-agreement to follow the rules'. And it seems that Bell's sociological background has given him the required understanding. The new foreword shows considerable contemplation of the books success. Bell explains how there has been an unprecedented increase in the use of the phrase 'post industrial society' but he is not complacent, rather he underlines the lack of 'specificity as to what is connotes'. He describes how the general usage of the phrase, which is often used in reference to the decline in manufacturing and industry, does not acknowledge the parallel changes in social structure, social organisation and the new classes that will be, and have been created, specifically the class of knowledge (this theme is further explored in chapter 3, entitled The New Class Structure of the Post Industrial Society).[ Bell adamantly argues that his vision of the Post Industrial Society does not see the old one displaced by the new, rather a synthesis emerges in which the new society will overlay the old one in profound ways, much as industrialisation continues to coexist within the agrarian sectors of our society.] Thus it seems that Bell does not merely use the new foreword to hail his work a success but to redress, the misunderstood, misinterpreted or inadequately adopted parts of his social forecast. Bell explains how it is inadequate to define the new society primarily by the services but he does see the productive nature of them. While society naturally embraces the three distinctions of industry as primary, secondary and tertiary in the new foreword Bell makes further distinctions by suggesting 'quaternary' (covering trade and finance) and 'quinary' (health and education), these are the involved in the economics of information not goods or labour. And thus it seems that while Bell has pioneered he wants to pioneer further. He further states that the central and novel feature of the Post Industrial Society is the 'codification of theoretical knowledge and new relation of science to technology'. Major developments of the 20th century came from revolutions in physics and biology as opposed to the 'inspired and talented tinkerers' like Alexander Graham Bell. This suggests the increasing dependence on science as a means of technical and social change, and science is wholly dependent on knowledge and information.
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