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Rating: 
Summary: A Good Start
Review: It now looks like there are really only two, maybe three at most, success stories among Garten's Top Ten choices: China, South Korea, and possibly India. Mr. Garten's next edition should focus on these.
Rating:
Summary: A Good Start
Review: It now looks like there are really only two, maybe three at most, success stories among Garten's Top Ten choices: China, South Korea, and possibly India. Mr. Garten's next edition should focus on these.
Rating: 
Summary: Two to Four Possible Successes
Review: It's easy to sit back a few years after a predictive book hits the market and critique it for its shortcomings; but, it's also fun.In The Big Ten, Jeffrey Garten undertakes the task of setting forth why he believes that the countries of China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, South Korea, South Africa, Indonesia, Poland, and Argentina are on the way to economic and political success. His major premise is the embrace of free market philosophies by each country. While this is true to varying degrees, there is a big difference between free market economics as practiced by the United States and as practiced by any of these countries. Each of these countries retains to some degree the command and regulatory economy that is almost a death bite to emerging economies. The most egregious of these countries oddly enough happens to be one of the most successful: China. However, China's success has more to do with how awful a position they were starting from than with true free market reforms. In retrospect, it was more than wishful thinking on Garten's part to believe that all of these countries would some day soon blossom into developed industrial or post-industrial economic and political forces. It appears that he will be right in at most four cases but more likely two or three. The two guranteed successes appear to be Mexico and South Korea. Both have not only made the transition to free market economics; but, they have also made the transition to free market politics. I believe that any multi-ethnic country needs political freedom as well as economic freedom to truly be successful past a certain point. While not being in this category, South Korea has nevertheless made the transition, which only bodes well for them. There is a group of six from which I believe that two are likely to emerge from to gain the type of influence that Garten eyes for them. Those two are Poland and India. I believe these two are the most likely to come from this group for the reason I mentioned above: multi-party free elective governments. I don't believe the others in this group (China, Turkey, Brazil, and Argentina) are likely to hit the same level for their own unique reasons, endemic corruption, state interference, and political repression to name a few. The remaining two countries, South Africa and Indonesia, will be lucky if they manage to make it through the next twenty years without a bloody war, either internal or external, on their hands. Indonesia is disintegrating before our eyes from political turmoil and South Africa is doing the same from the AIDS epidemic. History will be the ultimate judge if Garten, or even myself, is correct on this matter. So far, it isn't looking good for him.
Rating:
Summary: Thought-provoking vision of the future world economy.
Review: This is an excellent publication to read as you are putting together your future export marketing programs. It will provide you with fresh ideas on how to develop your most profitable foreign markets. It is primarily based upon Mr. Garten's experience as Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade during the first Clinton Administration. Although there is a definite political slant to its content, I recommend this book for all entrepreneurs and international trade executives who are responsible for establishing export strategies, forecasts and budgets.
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