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How Hits Happen: Forecasting Predictability in a Chaotic Marketplace

How Hits Happen: Forecasting Predictability in a Chaotic Marketplace

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How is it that certain sites become the superstars of the World Wide Web? What makes Internet-based stores and services, such as America Online, burst into public consciousness? The process is the same, Farrell explains, as that which took Hootie and the Blowfish from bar band to supergroup at record speed or made Beanie Babies the national craze.

Farrell shows how social interactions create hits, both online and off. Better yet, he demonstrates how computer models are using the mathematics of complexity theory to help predict the hit or flop potential of new ideas, products, and services. What makes the models so fascinating is that they behave as groups of individual consumers, running in simulated communities inside the computer, approximating the reactions of their flesh-and-blood counterparts.

While the principles here apply to the entire world of business, they are particularly essential for those who wish to create an audience or customer base on the Internet, where the hit-creating (and preventing) forces seem to be particularly volatile. And while Farrell makes it clear that hits cannot be manufactured on demand, he is able to provide good advice on tactics, which can swing the odds more in your favor. --Elizabeth Lewis

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