Future Consumer.com

Rating:
Summary: Irresistible Scenario Base to Overcome Stalled Thinking
Review: Most individuals and companies are making poor use of the Internet's potential because they have limited experience with it and are uncertain about its future development. So when such individuals try to think about what the Internet means to them in 2010, they draw a blank.

As Peter Drucker reminds us, the future can always be anticipated by looking at what has already happened. In the case of the Internet, many companies and individuals are making very thorough and advanced use of this medium. What are the lessons of their experiences? Frank Feather has done a superb job of examining that question. His research methodology included lots of Web content analysis, review of user patterns, access to planned new technologies not yet in use, and panels of experts estimating the future.

As a result, futureconsumer.com is the best set of scenarios I have seen for thinking about the future of the Internet. For the importance and use of such scenarios, I refer you to Arie de Geus's, The Living Company and his experiences at Royal Dutch Shell in this area.

Most people forecasting about the Internet stop around 2004 or 2005. Feather has numbers for that period as well, but also figures for 2010. He also compares his forecasts to other well-known ones, and explains the reasons for why he differs from them.

What you will find is that Feather thinks most product and service categories will develop 20 to 50 percent faster than the standard forecasts. That means that by 2010, there are enormous changes in the mix of how consumers will access products and services.

I was impressed by his logic in those areas where I am familiar with what is being done in new technology and on the Internet by major companies. He certainly reflects the best thinking that I have seen in those areas.

In a few cases, I think he is a little aggressive, but for scenarios, it doesn't matter if the scenario is a little high. In fact, as we point out in The Irresistible Growth Enterprise, Nth Degree testing (extreme scenarios) are often the most valuable because they make thinking easier.

To further help you in your scenario thinking, Feather has developed an estimate of which Web sites will be leaders in their categories and in overall traffic. This allows you to think about who your key competitors are likely to be, a valuable addition for scenario analysis.

Further, he goes on to discuss the strategy implications for start-up Web operators, existing major Web sites, and physical world companies. If you work for a large company, he probably discusses your company's issues in some detail here. That, too, can help you with your scenarios.

I read a lot, and consult regularly for the most advanced companies on the Internet. Despite that background, I learned a lot from this book. It has examples and research that I was unaware of. Also, I realized that by not thinking out to 2010 I had missed areas where our consulting firm should be taking action now. Most books on the Internet entertain me, but don't change my behavior. This one is the exception.

His overall success model for the future of the Internet is a good one. I think it needs a few more factors, but if you build on this one, you will be in the right ball park at least.

Now, I do have a quibble. This book was not as carefully edited as it should have been. For example, the Web is almost always referred to as the 'always-on' Web. After the 100th time, that gets a little tiresome. That point could have been established after the 3rd or 4th time. Also, the numbers in one part of a chapter often appear to contradict the numbers in another part of a chapter. For example, on-line trading appeared to be described as being both 18 and 37 percent of all trading at the end of 1999. I believe the latter is the correct number. Before the next printing, I hope someone goes back through and completes the editing process. I don't think these errors harm the content of the book, but they annoyed me.

Otherwise, the book is a delight to read. Mr. Feather is a fine and imaginative writing, with a flair for getting his ideas across. I particularly liked his examples of stalled thinking among bricks and mortar companies, often exemplified by a quote. He has an excellent set of 50 questions at the end to help you eliminate stalled thinking. These questions are worth buying the book for. Also, he has a wonderful description of what it is like to be engrossed in the Internet -- something he calls flow. I think that is a very useful concept, and one that I plan to share with others.

He also offers a Web site where he will update his work from time to time, so the book will stay current for you.

Have an irresistible time expanding your future success with futureconsumer.com!

Rating:
Summary: Irresistible Scenario Base to Overcome Stalled Thinking
Review: Most individuals and companies are making poor use of the Internet's potential because they have limited experience with it and are uncertain about its future development. So when such individuals try to think about what the Internet means to them in 2010, they draw a blank.

As Peter Drucker reminds us, the future can always be anticipated by looking at what has already happened. In the case of the Internet, many companies and individuals are making very thorough and advanced use of this medium. What are the lessons of their experiences? Frank Feather has done a superb job of examining that question. His research methodology included lots of Web content analysis, review of user patterns, access to planned new technologies not yet in use, and panels of experts estimating the future.

As a result, futureconsumer.com is the best set of scenarios I have seen for thinking about the future of the Internet. For the importance and use of such scenarios, I refer you to Arie de Geus's, The Living Company and his experiences at Royal Dutch Shell in this area.

Most people forecasting about the Internet stop around 2004 or 2005. Feather has numbers for that period as well, but also figures for 2010. He also compares his forecasts to other well-known ones, and explains the reasons for why he differs from them.

What you will find is that Feather thinks most product and service categories will develop 20 to 50 percent faster than the standard forecasts. That means that by 2010, there are enormous changes in the mix of how consumers will access products and services.

I was impressed by his logic in those areas where I am familiar with what is being done in new technology and on the Internet by major companies. He certainly reflects the best thinking that I have seen in those areas.

In a few cases, I think he is a little aggressive, but for scenarios, it doesn't matter if the scenario is a little high. In fact, as we point out in The Irresistible Growth Enterprise, Nth Degree testing (extreme scenarios) are often the most valuable because they make thinking easier.

To further help you in your scenario thinking, Feather has developed an estimate of which Web sites will be leaders in their categories and in overall traffic. This allows you to think about who your key competitors are likely to be, a valuable addition for scenario analysis.

Further, he goes on to discuss the strategy implications for start-up Web operators, existing major Web sites, and physical world companies. If you work for a large company, he probably discusses your company's issues in some detail here. That, too, can help you with your scenarios.

I read a lot, and consult regularly for the most advanced companies on the Internet. Despite that background, I learned a lot from this book. It has examples and research that I was unaware of. Also, I realized that by not thinking out to 2010 I had missed areas where our consulting firm should be taking action now. Most books on the Internet entertain me, but don't change my behavior. This one is the exception.

His overall success model for the future of the Internet is a good one. I think it needs a few more factors, but if you build on this one, you will be in the right ball park at least.

Now, I do have a quibble. This book was not as carefully edited as it should have been. For example, the Web is almost always referred to as the 'always-on' Web. After the 100th time, that gets a little tiresome. That point could have been established after the 3rd or 4th time. Also, the numbers in one part of a chapter often appear to contradict the numbers in another part of a chapter. For example, on-line trading appeared to be described as being both 18 and 37 percent of all trading at the end of 1999. I believe the latter is the correct number. Before the next printing, I hope someone goes back through and completes the editing process. I don't think these errors harm the content of the book, but they annoyed me.

Otherwise, the book is a delight to read. Mr. Feather is a fine and imaginative writing, with a flair for getting his ideas across. I particularly liked his examples of stalled thinking among bricks and mortar companies, often exemplified by a quote. He has an excellent set of 50 questions at the end to help you eliminate stalled thinking. These questions are worth buying the book for. Also, he has a wonderful description of what it is like to be engrossed in the Internet -- something he calls flow. I think that is a very useful concept, and one that I plan to share with others.

He also offers a Web site where he will update his work from time to time, so the book will stay current for you.

Have an irresistible time expanding your future success with futureconsumer.com!

Rating:
Summary: He's right on with Quixtar
Review: This book is must for anyone who's involved with e-commerce. Very insightful, very exciting to read, especially when you know what you are doing now is exactly where we are headed.

It's funny, I wonder how many people reading the book even heard of Quixtar? And Frank predicts it to be and already is a Top 5 e-commerce company, plus it's profitable. Hmmm...who else can say that? Do any of the other 4 companies he predicts to be in the Top 5 in 2010 allow you to partner with them to get flat out wealthy?

Using this book can help you predict which companies will succeed and which will not. Thereby which ones to invest in now and which ones to dump.

I'm sure some reading this will think it's pie in the sky, but in the end, the pie will be in their face for not taking advantage of the Internet.