The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers

Rating:
Summary: Too Early to Tell whether Kennedy's On the Money
Review: This review is, perhaps, best characterized as a response to Won Joon Choe's review. Choe makes several good points about two of the weaknesses in Kennedy's argument. His central thesis that imperial overreach leads to the decline of an empire, and he sees the U.S. in state of relative decline. Choe points out that Kennedy should not rely so heavily on his analogy between the U.S.' current position and Britian's former position in the world. Choe also points out that the U.S. has not relinquished and will not relinquish its global primacy for the foreseeable future. These two criticisms of Kennedy's book are valid, in my opinion. However, this is not to say that Kennedy is entirely wrong. I think it is more useful to construe Kennedy's work as attempt to work through the fine details of why empires arise in the first place and some of the possible reasons why they may tumble. In fact, to assert that imperial overreach is "the" reason why empires fall is also an oversimplification of Kennedy's argument. It is possible that the U.S. is in a state of relative decline and may lose its global preeminence-in an hundred years or more. Only time will be able to confirm or disprove Kennedy's work. And Choe should be wary about quickly jumping on the Fukuyama bandwagon. Fukuyama's conception of the triumph of liberalism is far too premature to even begin asserting, though it is an evocative thought. The central thesis to his book is far more difficult to hold than Kennedy's.

Rating:
Summary: Could a book be more wrong?
Review: Time has not been kind to Paul Kennedy's book. It's sort of funny to think that Kennedy was writing this on the eve of a ten year financial boom in the US -- one of the largest in American history -- and that the US was experiencing a revolution in military affairs that would create one of the largest military gaps in world history. I'm sure that some people will think that he was correct, but just premature. If you're one of these people, get in line behind the guy waiting for the Second Coming, and maybe just in front of the guy waiting for the workers of the world to unite. (Make sure to read his treatment of the USSR -- if you do a "find and replace" with the US, the book makes sense and predicts things perfectly.)

Rating:
Summary: Excellent
Review: Yale history prof. Paul Kennedy is one of the premier historians writing today. I read this book for the first time in Hong Kong, on the eve of its annexation by Beijing, and I couldn't put it down. I found this book riveting and wonderfully written - honest to god, it's a page-turner of a textbook. I don't feel that it's too early to see how 'on the mark' Kennedy has been - after all, only the last few sections are forward looking, and he underlines that even those are speculative. What is impressive about this work is its thoroughness of scope, depth of analysis, and versatile literary style. If you want general survey of the true powerholders in the modern era, there is no peer.