Rating: 
Summary: 'Dismal science' makes for fascinating reading
Review: Americans seem to have a blind spot when it comes to history. We can't see the value of learning about the past, and applying its lessons to the present. We're arrogant enough with our vast wealth and power to believe that we invented everything first. Or we simply don't see the value of history, as a resource, as object lesson, as holding some answers to today's dilemmas. Brandeis University professor David Hackett Fischer acknowledges this blind spot and takes the long view in "The Great Wave." Utilizing a very long telescope, one that sees back as far as the Dark Ages, Fischer investigates the history of price changes to expound on a fascinating theory that can possibly foretell nothing less than the future of the United States, whether we're headed for an era of greater prosperity, or a catastrophe like that of the Great Depression. Fischer's long-view theme is similar to more popular and populist works that spring up like daffodils and last about as long: Toffler's "Fourth Wave" and "Future Shock" easily come to mind, and politicians have their favorite advocates of either the "future's so bright we got to wear shades" school of eternal optimism, or the "hunker down, boys, the Japanese / Germans / Latinos / big business / lower classes are coming over the walls" school. The theory behind "The Great Wave," in contrast, is the real thing, backed by solid research, not the author's political leanings. By examining the prices people paid for goods throughout history, four "price revolutions" were identified, each followed by a long period when prices were relatively stable. The intensity and length of each revolution was different, lasting as short as 80 years, to as long as 180 years. What provides the kick behind this notion is how this series of rising and fallings have had on the growth of society. In general, rising prices placed severe stresses on society at large. During the first three upticks (during the Medieval, 16th century and 18th century periods), bad weather added to the troubles by destroying harvests, leading to widespread starvation. The lower classes, squeezed between prices for basic foods they could no longer pay, as well as laws passed by the wealthy classes who wished to protect their investments, lead to catastrophes such as social revolution or a population-reducing plague. That would restabilize prices and, in general, give everybody a chance to catch their breath. Once the shocks of the collapse have passed, the society finds that prices have stabilized, and the population at large begins to recover. When times are good, the population tends to increase. This places stresses on food and fuel, triggering inflation. Continued prosperity increases the cycle of growth and demand, and added to the troubles are the occasional wars, when ambitious people felt comfortable enough with the status quo to demand more of it. This is a simplistic rendering in a review of what is actually a rather simple theory to understand in practice. Fischer tells the story of each wave, and the cause-and-effect patterns are so clear that it seems like one is reading the same story four times, with only the names of the players changed. Fischer's book looks intimidating at first. Its 536 pages is studded with charts showing the fluctuation of prices throughout history. But Fischer devotes only 258 pages to an analysis of prices waves; the rest of the book is taken up with appendices and essays on side issues. And the 258 pages contains 105 charts, further reducing the amount of reading needed to grasp the main points. Economics has been called the dismal science, but Fischer's work offers a cautionary story that is readily understandable and surprisingly compelling to the general reader. Where Fischer says we are on the next wave, I'll leave to those willing to make the effort. "The Great Wave" is well worth the journey.
Rating:
Summary: 'Dismal science' makes for fascinating reading
Review: Americans seem to have a blind spot when it comes to history. We can't see the value of learning about the past, and applying its lessons to the present. We're arrogant enough with our vast wealth and power to believe that we invented everything first. Or we simply don't see the value of history, as a resource, as object lesson, as holding some answers to today's dilemmas. Brandeis University professor David Hackett Fischer acknowledges this blind spot and takes the long view in "The Great Wave." Utilizing a very long telescope, one that sees back as far as the Dark Ages, Fischer investigates the history of price changes to expound on a fascinating theory that can possibly foretell nothing less than the future of the United States, whether we're headed for an era of greater prosperity, or a catastrophe like that of the Great Depression. Fischer's long-view theme is similar to more popular and populist works that spring up like daffodils and last about as long: Toffler's "Fourth Wave" and "Future Shock" easily come to mind, and politicians have their favorite advocates of either the "future's so bright we got to wear shades" school of eternal optimism, or the "hunker down, boys, the Japanese / Germans / Latinos / big business / lower classes are coming over the walls" school. The theory behind "The Great Wave," in contrast, is the real thing, backed by solid research, not the author's political leanings. By examining the prices people paid for goods throughout history, four "price revolutions" were identified, each followed by a long period when prices were relatively stable. The intensity and length of each revolution was different, lasting as short as 80 years, to as long as 180 years. What provides the kick behind this notion is how this series of rising and fallings have had on the growth of society. In general, rising prices placed severe stresses on society at large. During the first three upticks (during the Medieval, 16th century and 18th century periods), bad weather added to the troubles by destroying harvests, leading to widespread starvation. The lower classes, squeezed between prices for basic foods they could no longer pay, as well as laws passed by the wealthy classes who wished to protect their investments, lead to catastrophes such as social revolution or a population-reducing plague. That would restabilize prices and, in general, give everybody a chance to catch their breath. Once the shocks of the collapse have passed, the society finds that prices have stabilized, and the population at large begins to recover. When times are good, the population tends to increase. This places stresses on food and fuel, triggering inflation. Continued prosperity increases the cycle of growth and demand, and added to the troubles are the occasional wars, when ambitious people felt comfortable enough with the status quo to demand more of it. This is a simplistic rendering in a review of what is actually a rather simple theory to understand in practice. Fischer tells the story of each wave, and the cause-and-effect patterns are so clear that it seems like one is reading the same story four times, with only the names of the players changed. Fischer's book looks intimidating at first. Its 536 pages is studded with charts showing the fluctuation of prices throughout history. But Fischer devotes only 258 pages to an analysis of prices waves; the rest of the book is taken up with appendices and essays on side issues. And the 258 pages contains 105 charts, further reducing the amount of reading needed to grasp the main points. Economics has been called the dismal science, but Fischer's work offers a cautionary story that is readily understandable and surprisingly compelling to the general reader. Where Fischer says we are on the next wave, I'll leave to those willing to make the effort. "The Great Wave" is well worth the journey.
Rating: 
Summary: a magazine article that shouldn't have grown into a book
Review: A typical academic's expansion of an idea that might have made an interesting magazine article, but produced a dull book. It's virtue is a comprehensive picture of economic activity over most of recorded history. Even that suffers from the author's politically biased views of the last half century.
Sometimes, when it's "publish or perish", perishing seems an attractive alternative.
Rating:
Summary: a magazine article that shouldn't have grown into a book
Review: A typical academic's expansion of an idea that might have made an interesting magazine article, but produced a dull book. It's virtue is a comprehensive picture of economic activity over most of recorded history. Even that suffers from the author's politically biased views of the last half century.
Sometimes, when it's "publish or perish", perishing seems an attractive alternative.
Rating:
Summary: A poorly written politically biased book
Review: Being very interested in the effects the economy in general and price movements in particularly had on the history of the civilization, I have immediately noticed this book and bought it. What a disappointment! Compared to, for example, Fernan Braudel excellent study of the European economic history, Fischer's book frequently lacks factual basis and depth. The book is also amazingly brief for such a colossal subject. The author's style is, in my view, below criticism - the book is written as if is it intended for distribution among illiterate peasants. Finally, the part of the book discussing the 20th century monetary history has an easily noticeable political bias and hints at some dark conspiracies originated in the US government and the Federal Reserve to impoverish the American worker. In brief, don't waste your time and money on this book. Special thanks to Amazon.com for issuing a full refund for this book to me
Rating:
Summary: Disapointing
Review: Compared to his other superb books, this is one is tedious and boring. The overall thesis is a stretch - trying to find equivalences between pre-industrial (and pre-printing press) 13th century price paterns and those of the industrialized and post-industrial 20th century requires ignoring far to many factors. At a minimum comparing a world in which 90% of the population are attached to agricultural production and illiterate to world where almost precicly the reverse holds is just too big a leap to swallow.
Sadly, one suspects more than a little political axe-grinding is involved.
Enjoy Fischer's other books where he excells, but you won't miss much if you neglect to read The Great Wave. Besides, the subject has been better treated elsewhere by authors not so obviously out of their depth.
Rating: 
Summary: Excellent, Highly Recommended
Review: Fischer's book takes in a long view of basic economic history. It covers the period from roughly 1200 AD to present, using data from England, Europe and the United States. The book sizes up what has taken place economically, socially, etc. and it discusses some basic relationships. A great contribution of the book is that it becomes apparent to the reader that long term effects are frequently completely invisible to people coping with present economic situations. For example, many well-intended fiscal policies are counter-productive or produce neutral effects for this very reason. Another great supporting contribution of the book is that Fischer is well aware of the various schools of economic thought. At many places in the text, he points out weaknesses of certain theories; in his appendix he summarizes by showing that no existing single theory fully explains actual historical events. Another great contribution is the appendix itself. It comprises half the book, and contains a massive bibliography, with further elaborations on social issues, crime, disease, divorce, contrasts in economic theories, wealth distribution, and more. Most of the references are of high scholarly quality. There are a few shortcomings in presentation, but these are details. For example, Fischer occasionally makes asides which would be more effective if they were concise summaries. Also, some of his graphs have peculiar scaling. The reader must exercise care in interpreting them. Nevertheless, ... Fischer's work is an excellent overview of economic dynamics, and is highly recommended for obtaining a well-rounded perspective.
Rating: 
Summary: Worth reading if not believing
Review: Here's a book whose scope would intimidate most historians and economists: seven centuries of price history ranging across the globe, although Fischer's preferred case is Western Europe. The historical discussion is very weak. Professional historians no longer believe in, much less write about "The Renaissance" and few would grant that price trends explain sociocultural phenomena, which is clearly what Fischer thinks even as he denies it. The economics isn't much better. For example, Fischer routinely confuses changes in relative prices with changes in the price level and makes no distinction between the functional and size distributions of income. The concluding chapter would be funny if it were not seriously intended. But you know what, despite all its flaws, this is a book that gets you thinking.
Rating:
Summary: Important book for historical perspective on Western society
Review: I have been surprised that scholars in the social sciences have not paid more attention to Fischer's book. There are, as with any integrative work of this scope, issues. My main concern is that he treats preferred family size as a psychological variable which is taken as a given; in fact, attitudes about number and investment in offspring are well studied in behavioral biology (though in humans, our psychological capacities -- especially for self-deception and ideology -- require added analysis compared to other species). Still, Fischer reminds us that most scholarship takes an absurdly narrow view of time and space. Moreover, his categorization seems to fit some of my own work on the impllications of technological and theoretical change in late 15th/early 16th century Florence.
Rating:
Summary: For the mildly interested
Review: If you are interested in economic history but aren't a specialist this book is an excellent fit. It does not assume a fluid knowledge of European hisotry. Nor does it assume you want make this your life's work. The Great Wave covers 3 seperate instances of long term inflation compares and contrasts them. The basic thesis is that increased productivity and a healthy economy leads to ever increasing demands on resources which create a slow secular inflation. As people realize they are in a slow inflation, a hyper inflation starts this damages the financial system and causes an economic disaster. From there the whole thing starts over.
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