The US and a Rising China : Strategies and Military Implications (MR1082)

Rating:
Summary: Engage, but Hedge
Review: This Rand Corporation report, prepared for the U.S. Air Force, presents a tight, concise analysis of the current and future Sino-U.S. relationship. Zalmay Khalilzad and company don't present anything new or earth shaking, nor should they have since the purpose was to analyze and present information useful to policy makers. It's a good Rand report, as most are, and is a good reference -- reassuring to those who have spent time studying the issues, and informative to those just embarking on careers as defense analysts.

The central theme of "The United States and a Rising China" is that our policy toward China should be a combination of the current "engagement" approach and "containment" -- "congagement" is the term coined by the authors. This modified engagement/containment approach recognizes China as a rising power, one which will have a gross national product equivalent to the United States in a few decades or so. It encourages continuation of enhanced economic, political and cultural ties with China, but would be "less solicitous of Chinese sensitivities on such issues as human rights." The key to success of such a policy would be to maintain a balance in the application of its co-principles of engagement and containment.

"The United States and a Rising China" covers these topics in some detail: determinants of Chinese national security behavior (which I found of interest); China's military modernization (which is a good summary, but lacks depth); and U.S. policy options (which are worth a look).

Perhaps most valuable is the analysis that looks at future military implications of a more powerful China. It's not that they would pose a threat as a peer competitor. Rather, China appears to be increasingly capable of projecting power in a limited way around its peripheral areas while still maintaining enough of a strategic capability to give caution.

So, the recommendation of the authors is to continue engagement with China, but to also hedge our bets against a future, possibly threatning regional power. The Rand analysts look out only to 2015 in assessing military capabilities of China. I found this a little bit of an analytical hedge, since Chinese analysts themselves are looking out 20 to 30 years with respect to a true military revolution in technological, doctrinal and organizational change; and the U.S. Air Force itself has studied future military capabilities to 2025.

Rating:
Summary: Engage, but Hedge
Review: This Rand Corporation report, prepared for the U.S. Air Force, presents a tight, concise analysis of the current and future Sino-U.S. relationship. Zalmay Khalilzad and company don't present anything new or earth shaking, nor should they have since the purpose was to analyze and present information useful to policy makers. It's a good Rand report, as most are, and is a good reference -- reassuring to those who have spent time studying the issues, and informative to those just embarking on careers as defense analysts.

The central theme of "The United States and a Rising China" is that our policy toward China should be a combination of the current "engagement" approach and "containment" -- "congagement" is the term coined by the authors. This modified engagement/containment approach recognizes China as a rising power, one which will have a gross national product equivalent to the United States in a few decades or so. It encourages continuation of enhanced economic, political and cultural ties with China, but would be "less solicitous of Chinese sensitivities on such issues as human rights." The key to success of such a policy would be to maintain a balance in the application of its co-principles of engagement and containment.

"The United States and a Rising China" covers these topics in some detail: determinants of Chinese national security behavior (which I found of interest); China's military modernization (which is a good summary, but lacks depth); and U.S. policy options (which are worth a look).

Perhaps most valuable is the analysis that looks at future military implications of a more powerful China. It's not that they would pose a threat as a peer competitor. Rather, China appears to be increasingly capable of projecting power in a limited way around its peripheral areas while still maintaining enough of a strategic capability to give caution.

So, the recommendation of the authors is to continue engagement with China, but to also hedge our bets against a future, possibly threatning regional power. The Rand analysts look out only to 2015 in assessing military capabilities of China. I found this a little bit of an analytical hedge, since Chinese analysts themselves are looking out 20 to 30 years with respect to a true military revolution in technological, doctrinal and organizational change; and the U.S. Air Force itself has studied future military capabilities to 2025.