Nuclear Terrorism : The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe

Rating:
Summary: Half the story
Review: This book argues that nuclear terrorism is a frightening threat, that we are vulnerable, and that it is almost inevitable if we don't try much harder, and more effectively, to prevent it. The first two points are certainly correct. But is nuclear terrorism as easy and inevitable as Allison argues? One is reminded of the famous physicist Enrico Fermi's remark about extraterrestrial intelligent life: ``So where is everybody?'', meaning that if the universe is full of advanced intelligent life, why hasn't it come and made itself known? If nuclear terrorism is as easy as Allison claims, why hasn't it happened yet?

The answer must be that it isn't so easy after all. But that doesn't provide much reassurance---if it was too difficult for al Qaeda in 2001, can we sure it will be beyond the means of al Qaeda's successors ten years later? Of course, we cannot be sure, and that makes Allison's wake-up call valuable. More nuclear material is being created, often in unreliable or unstable hands (Pakistan, North Korea, Iran, possibly lost in Russia).

Allison's solutions are obvious and sensible: ensure that no new nuclear powers are created, disarm North Korea, make sure tight control is maintained over existing nuclear material, some of which is now scattered and poorly controlled in research reactors around the world and possibly also in Russia.

Unfortunately, this book is long on these generalities and short on specifics. The devil is in the details: How do we disarm North Korea, keep Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and keep Pakistan's (and Russia's) from falling into the hands of terrorists? That is not so simple or easy, and criticizing the present administration for not trying hard enough, whether or not justified, isn't useful (if they are trying harder, it may be all behind the scenes).

When one gets to details Allison does not inspire confidence. For example, he talks about scores of Russian ``suitcase'' (sized) weapons unaccounted for. If this were really true, some would have turned up by now, either detonated or seized from terrorists or black marketeers. Presumably the details are all secret, but there must be more to this story than the alarmist reports Allison cites so breathlessly. A little skepticism is required.

It is also clear that Allison is ignorant of almost everything technical to do with nuclear weapsons. Nuclear terrorism is a technical as well as a political issue. A knowledgeable technologist can find errors on practically every page that deals with these issues. Here are some examples:
p.4 Surface bursts produce negligible electromagnetic pulse
p.8 X-ray machines do not contain radioactive material
p.54 Chernobyl killed 37 people directly, not 6000. The number of later fatalities from cancer is uncertain, and may be small.
p.91 High explosives do not ``dry out''.
p.105 Depleted uranium does not have ``a radioactive signature essentially equivalent to that of HEU [Highly Enriched Uranium]''.
p.107 A football-sized lump of HEU would not ``be indistinguishable from any other metal object of the same size''. For example, it would weigh about 180 lb, more than twice as much as the same volume of iron (and nearly twice as much as the same volume of lead), and be many times more opaque to even the most penetrating X-rays.
p.197 Californium (one isotope is a neutron source), not americium, is used in oil well logging. Americium (an alpha emitter) is used in smoke detectors.

None of this affects the conclusion that nuclear terrorism is a real and frightening threat. Combatting it should be our government's first priority.

Rating:
Summary: The Second Best Account
Review: Even though this readable and compelling book has received a lot of publicity, Ferguson and Potter's "The Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism" actually provides more in-depth information and more useful analysis. In particular, "Four Faces" offers much more extensive analysis of the radiological weapon and nuclear facility threats, which are far more likely to occur than the nuclear explosions that form Allison's main focus.
Allison ferrets out telling anecdotes and lurid details that illustrate the refractory and yet possibly manageable nature of the threat. I found his accounts of the Chechen and Libyan cases particularly insightful. And one can only concur with his overall arguments about how nuclear terrorism should receive a much higher priority in terms of executive attention and federal spending. So the book offers considerable value as an up-to-date overview for the non-expert reader.
In terms of deeper analysis, although the book covers a wide swathe of international issues, it manages not even to mention the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and U.S. policy toward it. So in a broader sense, the analysis remains merely tactical.

Rating:
Summary: Horror in the making
Review: All the ingredients necessary to make the September 11, 2001 attacks a mere "footnote in history" are detailed in Dr. Allison's book. The unconfirmed report of missing Soviet "suitcase bombs" is only one of the disturbing issues you may or may not know about already. If you've been getting your WMD information from television news and movie dramas you'll discover some eye opening information in this book. Perhaps most disconcerting to me is the quoted views of so many creditable and notable authorities stating that a nuclear attack on the USA is already overdue.

In addition to clearly stating the threat, Dr. Allison gives his own "three no's and seven yeses" theory on how to prevent what would surely be the greatest catastrophe ever to confront the USA. That is, if it isn't already too late to prevent it.

I recommend this book as an important read not only for Americans, but also for those in Spain, Russia, Japan, Indonesia, England and any other country with a history of terror attacks because the USA is not the only nation terrorists seem to delight in attacking and thus not the only nation facing the nuclear terrorism threat.

There are some problems with this book. I found certain themes, if not exact text, to be far too repetitive. Sometimes I felt like I had read passage after passage before. It is as if the editor wasn't really paying attention. I even found a few typos. Also Dr. Allison clearly does some bashing of the Bush administration that may or may not have been justified depending on your politics.

Beyond the minor criticisms this is a creditable work written for the general public that succeeds in clearly delivering a few important messages about very complicated concepts. Clearly the US didn't do enough to prevent the September 11th, 2001 attacks and isn't doing enough to prevent the ultimate terrorist act. The scenarios outlined by Dr. Allison might just explain why VP Cheney is so often out of the public eye and most likely out of DC altogether. Another good question asked was who would we retaliate against for a nuclear terror attack and how?

If I lived anywhere near NYC or DC I'd be moving right now.


Rating:
Summary: Superb analysis that I'm afraid will go unheeded
Review: Because of the result of the 2004 US elections, the "Preventable" part of the title will not apply for at least four more years (unless by some miracle we manage to impeach that son of a Bush). But looking ahead to 2009 and beyond, we find in Allison's carefully constructed roadmap a ray of hope for a future without nuclear holocaust.

Please do not think of the Bush administration when reading through Allison's suggestions. You will laugh, and then you will cry. Although Allison is too respectful to say so, it is obvious that Bush is failing miserably in every single category that is essential to alleviating the threat of nuclear catastrophe. Arrogance, delusional behavior, oil-mongering, and self-serving policies will not improve anything. But Allison's ideas will, if someone with integrity steps up to the plate. So, read with an open mind, and you will receive an excellent education on the state of nuclear weapons and capabilities in the world, AND a tangible notion of how keeping them in check CAN be achieved.

Let us all hope that Dubya corrects enough of his mistakes to get us through 2008 in one piece. The next president can then give Allison's strategies a try: conduct a humble foreign policy, work to win back the minds and hearts of the countries and people we have alienated, and lead a global effort to secure nuclear weapons and materials around the world.


Rating:
Summary: No new nuclear weapons states- the Iranian danger
Review: Before I begin I would recommend that Amazon readers read Jonathan Dohenty's review posted on the Amazon site. It gives a very good description of what the book is about .In one key paragraph he summarizes as follows,the fundamental recommendations of Allison for preventing nuclear terror "No loose nukes, no new nascent nukes, and no new nuclear weapons states. Second, there must be the "Seven Yeses": Making the prevention of nuclear terrorism an absolute national priority, fighting a strategically focused war on terrorism, conducting a humble foreign policy, building a global alliance against nuclear terrorism, creating the intelligence capabilities required for success in the war on nuclear terrorism, dealing with dirty bombs, and constructing a multilayered defense. For the details of these no's and yeses, you'll just have to read the book. I think you'll find them reasonable and necessary. While Allison suggests a blueprint for prevention, it will ultimately be up to Americans and their government, hopefully in accord and alliance with other peoples of the world and their governments, to implement the policies he recommends."
My own review is not about the whole of Allison's book but rather about one particular danger, that of nuclear terror coming from one particular state, Iran. Allison puts the stress on preventing Iran's obtaining nuclear fuel, and therefore he argues forcefully that what is required is cooperation between Russia which is building the reactor at Bushehr and the United States in assuring that Iran does not retain possession of nuclear fuel rods. But as I understand it the Iranian nuclear program is vast and varied, involving many secret facilities. And these facilities are hidden underground. No one today can safely predict that Iran does not already have nuclear capability. The reason I stress Iran is because Iran has frequently in the past used surrogates to carry out acts of terror. Hizbollah is an Iranian offshoot, and the terror done at Khobar in Saudi Arabia against US forces, and in Beirut against US forces also apparently has Iran's Pasdaran behind it. The Iranians are now too interfering in Iraq and working there to undermine US efforts to set up a stable regime. What I am suggesting is that the Iranian problem is far more complex and needs far more concentrated and radical treatment than Allison suggests.
And here I would come to the first part of his book where he talks about various kinds of nuclear terror threat. It seems to me Iran is part of the grand alliance of Islamic Jihad whose aim is nothing less than the overthrow of Western civilization. Just one major terror nuclear terror act will as Michael Ignatieff has pointed out cause such a reaction on the part of US government authorities so as to completely alter American life and freedom. I am not saying Iran is the sole candidate for undertaking a monstrous act of nuclear terror. Unfortunately there are far too many and perhaps the most dangerous unknown. But Iran is a major player in the effort to overthrow the West. And the actions to undermine it cannot be based on methods of persuasion and cooperation alone.


Rating:
Summary: Good read, but somewhat of a chore
Review: I did enjoy this book greatly. However, at times, it seemed to repeat itself with some of its assertions. It could have been written more succinctly and engaging; however, this should not take away from the basic facts that are presented in this work. The fact that terrorists are trying to inflict great harm on our people and that the means exist to do so, need to be understood by all people.

My greatest criticism comes for the second half of the book, which is essentially the "how to avoid the impending catastrophe" portion of the work. It seems to contain partisan motivations and some "pie in the sky" thinking on funding and the world's political realities. That said, the ends are right even if they don't agree with the realities of the means.

Definitely should be a requirement for political decision makers, military officers and senior enlisted men, and anyone interested in world affairs.

Rating:
Summary: Excellent for beginners; few insights for the well-read
Review: If you have no knowledge of the current arms control climate this book is an excellent place to start. Mr. Allison has written a well researched account (by New York Times standards) of many of the headlining issues in nuclear proliferation. However, many of the issues, such as US-Russian nonproliferation cooperation, are given only a light review. Much more could be written on such topics, but that would probably bore only the most interested of readers.

There a few other quibbles. Parts of the book seems to have been slapped together in only a short time with little editing. Mr. Allison also gets the name of the agency Linton Brooks heads (and where I also work) incorrect. However, the overall high level of urgency Mr. Allison gives to the subject more than makes up for the editing deficiencies.

This book is, overall, a good review of well tread topics. Hopefully, awareness and concern for this issue will spread and pressure the US government to do more will build.

Rating:
Summary: Protecting Ourselves with a Solution
Review: In the first Presidential debate, both candidates described nuclear terrorism as the biggest single threat to the U.S. So after I saw the author on CNN, I decided to buy this book.

This is the best book out there on nuclear terrorism.

Every chapter in Part 1 (describing the threat) told me something about nuclear terrorism that I did not know, e.g. that there are six non-Al Qaeda terrorist groups who have tried to get nuclear material or that the Defense Department has lost enough nuclear weapons to have a code name for the problem - "broken arrows."

But the major reason to read this book is Part 2. Dr. Allison actually has a strategy and a program for preventing nuclear terrorism that seems hard to execute but not impossible a chokehold approach. If we can get our government to act soon, we can protect ourselves and our children from at least one horror.


Rating:
Summary: Could It Happen?
Review: Nearly everyone has heard of rumors of nuclear weapons missing from the arsenal of the former Soviet Union, and perhaps in the hands of terrorists, or soon to be. This book covers this and many other aspects of nuclear terrorism. In addition, author Graham Allison, a former assistant secretary of defense for policy and plans, promotes in this book a comprehensive program to stop nuclear proliferation, seemingly well thought out.

The war on terror and the dangers of nuclear terrorism is given much attention in this book. Secretary of defense Rumsfeld is quoted as worried that we may be producing more terrorists than we are eliminating, in the war in Iraq. Allison, claiming our arrogant foreign policy is causing great harm in our international standing, has a right to be concerned. Record numbers of people in other countries distrust the United States, due largely to our mostly unilateral war in Iraq, and they wonder what we may attack next. Allison calls for the United States to develop and execute a 'humble foreign policy' and says the current Bush administration is doing quite the opposite. After reading this book, and other items, I am convinced we have literally made billions of people across the globe distrustful of the United States, and this does impact the war on terrorism. If we are not careful we will be the new 'evil empire' in the eyes of the world, if not already there. According to Allison, not only was the war in Iraq a waste, no WMDs were found, but it detracts from the war on terrorism, namely nuclear terrorism. Graham Allison goes into all of this in minute detail. In the last parts of the book Allison explains a proposed international program to reduce the risk of nuclear terrorism, interesting reading.

Rating:
Summary: Totally Terrifying
Review: This book would be scary to read at any time, but right now, in the aftermath of 9/11 and with the news out of North Korea and Iran on those countries' nuclear programs, it's truly terrifying. As Graham Allison describes in his book and more graphically on his website (www.nuclearterror.org), the consquences of a nuclear bomb -- even a small, crude, or "flawed" bomb -- on a major US city would be devastating.

That's why Allison so forcefully lays out his "Three Nos": 1) No Loose Nukes; 2) No New Nascent Nukes; and 3) No New Nuclear Weapons States. According to Allison, if those "Three Nos" are not followed, nuclear terrorism in a U.S. city is nearly inevitable, killing hundreds of thousands of people and possibly destroying our democracy in the process. That, among other reasons, is why Allison calls nuclear terrorism "The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe." So what are we doing to prevent it?