Our Affair with El Nino : How We Transformed an Enchanting Peruvian Current into a Global Climate Hazard

Rating:
Summary: The romance of wind and wave - and us
Review: This beautifully conceived and rendered account of global weather systems is the best currently available. Philander is able to mix scientific and artistic elements with fluid elegance. He observes that recent intense El Nino events have led to a new awareness on this phenomenon. The focus, however, is both too limited and has been distorted by media. People have been led to believe that the sudden warming of waters off the Peruvian coast is an abnormal phenomenon. He points out that the El Nino and its obverse, La Nina are manifestations of a long-term oscillatory pattern. Neither are "deviations" from some perceived norm.

In explaining the Southern Oscillation of shifting warm and cool waters in the Eastern Pacific, Philander turns to various art expressions. Weather predicting is often the butt of jocularity - we remember incorrect forecasts readily, blithely ignoring the recent advances in accuracy. He recognises this tendency, but reminds us that our growing population, illogical placement of urban centres and vested economic need to have good science applied to anticipating weather trends and events. Weather prediction, rarely, if ever, considered a "hard science" has made tremendous strides. The tricks nature can play on us means that we must extend our thinking beyond solid mathematics. We must utilise the techniques of the painter, the poet and even the musician in considering weather and climate.

Forecasting the weather had flimsy beginnings. A thoughtful observer in one location might make accurate records. If nobody in neighbouring regions matched the work, it proved of little worth. The telegraph immeasurably added to the creation of communication links, as did the reports of ship captains bringing observations from long voyages. It was the integration of these bits of information through the intuitive methods of music or art that began to force new, expanded views of weather conditions. The local scene was too limited to provide a complete picture. Philander uses a musical metaphor to compare the weather in the British Isles with the California coast - a high-pitched violin or flute as contrasted with the notes of a cello or bassoon. Conditions in other areas, he says, push aside single instruments, stating "only a huge symphony orchestra can do justice to the music of this planet".

Predictability, common in most "hard" sciences, must give way to the many forces that contribute to our weather. From the deep, cold currents moving at the sea bottom to the cycles of heat exchange in the atmosphere, subtle change can evoke monstrous events. Such occurrences are more common along our inhabited coastal areas, but may reach far inland. A long-standing sequence of disastrous famines in India led to one of the first investigations of just how the monsoon was generated. Although the first attempts to understand it failed, it led to better assessments of the roots of weather patterns. Many of these, including the monsoon, still defy full description. Philander urges more investigation, although he recognises that those providing funding are still looking for quick, decisive answers. These won't be easily forthcoming, he notes, but increased effort must be made.

Philander has been a major voice in helping us to understand the vagaries weather investigators must endure. He wants us to recognise that cyclical events like El Nino and its counterpart will continue. We must be aware that hard and fast predictions are unlikely, and that we must prepare long-term plans to cope with changes. [stephen a. haines - Ottawa, Canada]