Powerdown : Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World

Rating:
Summary: NOT a pleasant book, but absolutely essential reading
Review: Back in the mid-70's when I was in college, I read a book called "Small is Beautiful" by E.F Schumacher (I wrote a review of this book under my old name Gwydionoak). It introduced what my economics teacher called the "great heresy" of economics - the simple, undisputable message that infinite economic (or any other) growth is not possible within a finite system. He also warned about the catastrophic consequences of ignoring this simple fact where our fossil fuels were concerned. The professor warned me that Schumacher was a 'radical', but that history would ultimately prove him right - an amazing comment at the time from a professor at Brigham Young University, a school well known for its very conservative view of the world.

Well, current history HAS proven Shumacher right - in spades. His warnings went universally unheeded, and Richard Heinberg, along with a few other courageous writers, has taken on the utterly thankless task of telling us that the moment Schumacher warned us about is now here, that the world peak of oil production will occur (if it hasn't already) within the next 1-3 years, and that world production will decrease steadily and unalterably afterwards, with repercussions that will spread out rapidly geometrically to every aspect of the western industrial civilization we have come to take for granted.

Reading this book was, for me, like having a doctor tell me that I have cancer. No one wants to hear that bit of news, but if you are to survive cancer - or the massive world upheavals that will likely begin before this decade is over - you need to know exactly what your condition is, and what options you have. This is precisely what Heinberg attempts to do. He lays out what he considers to be the four most likely options for industrial society (and the war in Iraq proves beyond debate which path the Bush administration has already chosen) over the next few decades, and makes suggestions for those who wish to get through the turbulent times ahead. Heinberg's book is not flawless, as the author himself admits at the end:

"This is just one person's attempt to survey a vast, complex, and shifting terrain,and I have inevitably oversimplified it. The view I have offered is unavoidably partial, even though my goal has been to set aside personal predudices as much as I can."

He has accomplished his task.

This is NOT a pleasant book to read, or to think about, but there is good news - Cancer IS survivable. So are the times to come. Read the book. Go online - do a Google Search of 'Peak Oil.' Then get busy.

Rating:
Summary: Highly Recommended
Review: I've been following the peak oil debate for several years and generally agree with most of its proponents. Still, I've remained on the fence about exactly how to deal with it. Powerdown moved me off the fence.

I think what makes this book special is that the author frames peak oil within the context of a larger issue, namely, the problem and effects of overpopulation. By addressing peak oil in that manner, he's able to draw together other developing threats, showing their interrelationship and, by extension, offering a clearer and more comprehensive perspective on our relationship to the world.

Despite the troubling nature of the subject matter, it's an invigorating read. That's due to good writing and the author's clear explanations of the various subjects he weaves together. Primarily, though, he shows that despite the immediacy of our situation, hope remains. And even if we fail collectively, the proactive individual need not suffer as well.

Although the book's opening argument is simple and straightforward - through unchecked growth we've pushed humanity and the planet to the breaking point - it covers more than just overpopulation and resource depletion, e.g., politics, culture, economics, and ecology. We're facing breakdown in each of these areas. Peak oil is simply leading the charge.

Coming to terms with the convergence of these crises will define humanity's turning point from adolescence to maturity. Powerdown tells us how we got here and why - and most importantly, what our options are. Once we have a clear understanding of the broader issues underlying peak oil, we can see it's not just another doomsday prediction, nor is it the singular threat to our continued growth. It is an opportunity, if we allow it to be. It is the harbinger of our next evolutionary leap.

Rating:
Summary: addresses impending problems of energy resource depletion
Review: Powerdown: Options And Actions For A Post-Carbon World by energy resource expert Richard Heinberg (Core Faculty, New College of California) addresses the rapidly impending problems of energy resource depletion and increasing population pressures for an expanding energy resource consumption. After an informative and fact-based overview of the likely impacts of il and natural gas depletion, Heinberg offers four possible options for industrial societies during the new several decades: "Last Main Standing": the path of competition for remaining resources; "Powerdown": the path of cooperation, conservation, and sharing; "Waiting for a Magic Elixir": wishful thinking, false hopes, and denial; "Building Lifeboats": the path of community solidarity and preservation. Exploring predictable responses to each of these diverse options, Powerdown is a timely and urgent call to action before our time runs out and our energy resources run dry.



Rating:
Summary: A dismal science
Review: This is a followup to the earlier book, 'The Partys Over'. The basic thrust of this book is simple 'We are going to run out of power soon, very soon so what are we going to do?'

The basic facts of overpopulation, energy and resource depletion basic planet abuse and mismanagement are laid out in some detail tho there are many references back to 'The Partys over'. Although there can be arguments made about exactly when the lights are going to go out, there can be very little doubt that the lights are going to go out. Alternate fuels like methane or tar sands - even hydrogen are shown to be simply not practical or plentiful enough.

The possible scenarios for afterwards that are spelt out are not very attractive. From 'Ignorance is bliss' to 'The Power grab', there is going to be widespread misery for most as the world civilization teeters and then collapses.

But there is an air of inevitability that permeates this book. The author tries to be upbeat "Yes we can change the world" but all evidence seems to point to the contrary - that the world is blind and deaf and oblivious- that those leaders who should be preparing us for the coming diasaster are both uncaring and greedy.

Toynbee's theory about the rise and fall of past civilizations was challenge and response. Civilizations reach a point where due to varying factors the threat from outside is simply greater then the inner ability to respond - so the civilization collapses. From the Romans to the Mayas to the present day, the theory holds true.

Bush's "Pax Americana" - the power grab for control of the oil of the mideast is just a salvo in the the opening scene of our final act. Dwindling resources - energy food water fought over by an unmanageable population paint a bleak future. Our end is already whimpering the bang is in the foreseeable future.

Rating:
Summary: Scarce And Expensive Oil In The Future
Review: This is Richard Heinberg's second book on the oil depletion problem, his first was THE PARTY'S OVER, you probably should read that book before this one, to get an overview of the enormous problem facing us in the near future. In this latest volume Heinberg writes much more about the underlying politics of the depletion scenario, and it is'nt a pretty one. At one time, when it was said that the war in Iraq was really about oil I did'nt believe it, or perhaps it was one of the minor side issues of the war. But Heinberg makes a case for it. After Bush declared "mission accomplished" (a laugh) his group only allowed primarily American companies, with a few allied companies, to work in Iraq. And it does'nt take much imagination to see that, as the Iraqi oil infrastructure is repaired (attempted), American oil companies will get most of the work. In a global free market economy the highest bidder would get Iraqi oil, but in a severe oil shortage Uncle Sam may declare: that since we "fixed" the system in Iraq the USA gets the oil...Iraqis are'nt stupid, they see this as a real possibility, that is perhaps one reason they sabotage oil pipelines continuously. As Heinberg writes, Bush and his followers are incompetent, with their belligerent foreign policy, but Heinberg does give Bush credit for recognizing the looming oil depletion problem on our horizon. Heinberg writes in detail of all of this, saying that instead of using the war to solve this problem we should instead be cooperating with other countries and spending the vast sums of money we are wasting on the war on alternate energy sources.

Although Heinberg believes we are already too late to prevent a collapse of our industrial way of life, he also writes that we should nevertheless begin the task of developing alternate energy sources, as they will be needed eventually, regardless of whether a collapse occurs and it's severity. Also, as Heinberg writes in detail, the neoconservatives that are now in power (the Bush administration) have informally connected to the 'religious right', making a powerful impediment to any progress to efforts to create a sustainable civilization, and that this coalition of neoconservatives with the religious right will lead us into endless resource wars and further ignite anti-American sentiments and additional terrorism against the USA and it's interests.

But the primary message here is resource depletion, especially oil. Also discussed by Heinberg is the idea of 'population overshoot', have we exceeded the carrying capacity of our planet via the production of vast amounts of food made possible by ferilizer manufactured with abundant and cheap natural gas? To me this is all very alarming, and we all should get our personal economic houses in order while we still are able to.

If the collapse of civilization as we know it is inevitable , perhaps, as Heinberg suggests, the best course for us is the preservation of books, the arts, etc., for use later in a post-collapse society. The sustainable energy program that Heinberg and many others suggest that we should pursue with utmost urgency seems unlikely to occur until the American people are faced with a severe oil shortage and massive price increases. Then the politicians will be forced to take real and responsible action. In the meantime we seem to be in a period of nearly endless resource wars with hundreds of billions of dollars each year diverted to this losing cause that indeed should be spent on alternate energy sources, better highways, and better health care, for all Americans. Considering the vast amounts we are spending in this overseas war effort, perhaps the terrorists have already won!

As a personal note, I have read a bit on the oil depletion problem, and the estimates of the date of the world oil production peak I have seen range from right now to the year 2020, a couple go out to 2034-2037, they can be dismissed rather easily, so it seems that around the year 2015 is a good average, in time we shall see. Of course, any large increase in world demand for oil could overwhelm the supply, making the peak date irrelevant.

Rating:
Summary: Choices for a future of expensive oil
Review: This little book, only a couple of hundred pages lays out a future that sounds all to real. He is talking about a world that exists without oil. Corection, not without oil, oil will never go away, but it appears that production is at or just about at its peak. Today, like yesterday the price of oil hit a new high. The price of oil will go up some and down some, but the trend is up, and it's going to continue upward.

The hell of it is, that this is no secret. Thirty years ago the Limits to Growth was published, laying out the whole senario. And the politicians know this. The Cheney Report in 2001 said, "Our prosperity and way of life are sustained by energy use. (E)nergy security must be a priority of US trade and foreigh policy." Quoted at the beginning of Chapter 1.

But I watched the Presidential debates, there was little discussion on energy. There was a lot of discussion on Iraq (one of the big oil producers - but this wasn't mentioned), there was a lot of name calling, basically a lot of discussion that seemed to amount to rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. I didn't hear a word about increasing the fuel economy of automobiles, alternate sources of energy - I must have just missed it. Our leaders certainly are looking forward to how we are going to handle this crisis.

This little book deserves to be read by everyone, I doubt that it will make the NY Times best seller list. Better than anything I've seen, it lays out the choices we have to make, either consiously or they will be made for us.