Preparing for the Twenty-First Century

Rating:
Summary: A Nightstand's Companion
Review: Along with Francis Fukuyama's THE END OF HISTORY AND THE LAST MAN, Paul Kennedy's book is a most invaluable resource for citizens of this new century.

A classic in every sense, PREPARING FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY examines the profound changes in the global arena wrought by globalisation, free-trade, the information (IT) age, and the new scientific revolution, in particular biotech- the treatment of the subject, although concise, is valuable, and the analysis of its economic effect highly competent.

(Note, however, that Kennedy made no serious reference about human rights in this book. It is recommended, therefore, to consult Robertson's CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY: THE STRUGGLE FOR GLOBAL JUSTICE, along with this work)

Like Kennedy's other great book THE RISE AND FALL OF GREAT POWERS, it is detailed, scholarly and very convincing, and the narration readable and enjoyable

Always revealing, this non-fiction still is relevant and important even in a post-Cold War era.

Rating:
Summary: Future of America
Review: Another outstanding work by Paul Kennedy. One question that I've been pondering over the past few years is "Will America fall from its preeminent position like all the superpowers of the past (Rome, China, UK) ?" . I think Paul Kennedy answered the question when he said that the US is undergoing a long, slow, relative (to the rest of the world) decline, similar to what happened to the UK in the 20th century. I know I'll catch heat from some of my fellow Americans who want to believe America will be the only superpower to the end of time. However, the cycle of rise, dominance, and decline of great nations has never been broken and we should be prepared to adjust to that inevitable outcome.

Rating:
Summary: Dated by now
Review: Back in 1993, the book sounded ominously prescient. Those were the years when the intellectual fashion was to predict the demise of the US and the coming supremacy of Germany and Japan (Lester Thurow, etc.). Kennedy said Japan, with its cohesive, educated society, would do better than the US and Europe, with their aging, diverse populations. Well, it's still early in the century to say anything, but so far Japan's homogeneous society looks stagnant, while the US and many European societies are extremely dynamic, thanks in good part to the energy of immigrants.

Of course it is not a dumb book. Kennedy is intelligent as a historian, but makes a very poor prophet (the Rise and Fall of the Great Powers is another interesting but very flawed book). Kennedy does not talk about Internet, for example. Not his fault, certainly, but anyway it's a thing to miss in a prediction of what the XXI century will be like. Summing up, the book was interesting eight years ago, but by now it looks very dated. Prophesizing is always an exciting but risky game to play.

Rating:
Summary: Outstanding -- a "must" read
Review: Kennedy's careful and insightful analysis of various regions of the world and their outlooks for the 21st century is a "must" read for anyone who cares for the future of this country or, indeed, the world -- and, I hope, this includes our lawmakers and President. He identifies population growth as the common driver of the issues facing virtually every region. His forecast for the future of the US is not encouraging. It is regrettable, however, that the author did not include a two-dimensional spreadsheet comparing the regions on all the parameters he identifies. While written in 1993, the forecasts are so accurate that one might think it was written last year.

Rating:
Summary: Winners and Losers in the 21st Century
Review: Like a lot of readers, I gulped down Paul Kennedy's THE RISE AND FALL OF THE GREAT POWERS when it came out in 1987, eager to read his predictions for the US, Japan, China, Russia, and the European Community. His reasoning, solidly based on his detailed knowledge of European history, made his book appear sedately respectable--even to those who did not agree with his conclusions. His second volume, PREPARING FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY, was inevitably a different sort of project: extrapolation of then-current trends into the new millenium. The book was published in 1993, but I didn't finish reading it until this summer; one of its pleasures was seeing how close his predictions came to the reality of events in places such as Japan and Russia. (His view toward Japan was one of "guarded optimisn": he felt it was in some ways best-suited for the challenges of the 21st century, but he pinpointed its vulnerabilities and deficiencies--especially the weakness of its political leadership, which is now proving so costly. With regard to Russia and to Eastern Europe, he was clearly pessimistic but attempted to consider more moderate possibilities; in the end he tended to underestimate the catastrophes ahead.) In many ways the second book shares the strengths of the first: sound reasoning, a good base of facts, and a point of view neither alarmist nor Pollyannish. Kennedy identifies trends, issues, and problems; he attempts to clarify choices and parameters. He suggests potential winners and losers of various scenarios. He does what he sets out to do; but most people don't really like this second volume, I think, because he is honest about the magnitude of the issues and the limits of possible responses. Kennedy focuses on trends in demographics, economics, technology, ecology, and politics: things like globalization and robotics and biotechnology--but he puts these glittering changes into specific contexts. Who wins, and who loses, he asks, when these trends interact with the specifics of cultures as diverse as China and Sweden, Japan and Mexico, Russia and Ethiopia? And how do the interactions among various trends intensify the impact of each? How much can political and economic leaders do to magnify advantages or minimize deficits? And how likely are the elites to do the right thing? Without advocating fatalism, Kennedy ends his book by saying, "...in the unlikely event that governments and societies do decide to transform themselves, we ought to recognize that our endeavors might have only a marginal efect on the profound driving forces of today's world." This is NOT what the elites want to hear, but in a month of Japanese recession sliding into depression and Russian debility crumbling into chaos, Paul Kennedy's cool rationality seems more relevant than ever.